- Bitcoin is trying to recover, but overall resistance still dominates
- Gold is structurally rising, but the divergence in momentum suggests a potential pause
- Silver is entering a price discovery phase, but momentum indicators show warning signs
Bitcoin, gold, and silver remain the focus this week ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index on Thursday and the expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
As macro narratives approach, analysts point to imminent volatility for BTC, XAU, and XAG prices.
## Price forecasts for Bitcoin, gold, and silver ahead of key macro headlines.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index on Thursday and the nearly certain interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan on Friday place Bitcoin and safe-haven commodities like gold and silver in a volatile state. In this context, the outlook for Bitcoin, XAU, and XAG this week is as follows.
### Relief rally weakens amidst the bearish price structure of Bitcoin.
The daily Bitcoin chart presents a counter-trend recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. The price has exited an ascending channel, suggesting that the relief rally may weaken after the sharp decline from the peak of $126,000.
While the short-term structure has improved, Bitcoin remains below key moving averages, including the 50-day and 100-day EMA at $95,601 and $101,022, respectively. These levels consistently track Bitcoin's price from the rally, forming dynamic resistance.
The relative strength index is recovering from the overbought area, currently stabilizing around the mid-forties, and a pending buy signal indicates an improvement in short-term momentum. This buy signal will be executed once the purple range (RSI) crosses above the signal line (yellow range).
Meanwhile, the MACD line remains above the signal line, indicating that bullish momentum is still technically dominant. However, sellers continue to show strength, as this indicator remains in negative territory.
While the histogram bars are shrinking and fading from their green color, this only indicates weak buying pressure, not that the bulls have surrendered. Note that the histogram charts remain in the positive area.
Analysis of the bullish volume profile (green horizontal bars) reveals significant upper demand, with buyers waiting in the late drop to interact with Bitcoin above the psychological level of $90,000.
For Bitcoin to transition to a sustained upward phase, it must break above the lower boundary of the ascending channel and regain the $100,000 level. Traders looking to capitalize on this potential rise should consider waiting until the candlestick closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018.
Until then, the market prefers to trade within a limited recovery range, with an increased risk of rejection at resistance levels. The broader trend remains cautious, but early signs of stability are emerging.
### The gold price channel approaches the upper limit with sell signals appearing.
Like Bitcoin, the 4-hour gold chart highlights a well-defined ascending channel, with prices currently heading towards the all-time high of XAU at $4,381.
Structurally, the trend remains bullish, with gold continuing to register higher highs and higher lows while respecting channel support throughout November and December.
However, momentum has started to diverge. The RSI indicator flipped from high levels, where it hovered around the mid to upper sixties, and a clear pending sell signal indicates a pullback in bullish momentum. The sell signal will be executed once the relative strength index crosses below the signal line.
This does not imply a trend reversal but rather an increased likelihood of a pullback towards the channel support. Such a move would provide latecomers in XAU with reduced entry into gold positions.
The key Fibonacci retracement levels bolster this view. A corrective move towards $4,265 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) or $4,193 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) will remain steadfast as the trend continues.
A deeper correction to $4,134 will only become concerning if accompanied by a channel breakdown, negating the bullish hypothesis once the price breaks and closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Unless the price of gold decisively breaks and closes below $4,076 during the four-hour period, the current setup favors short-term consolidation or a corrective downward movement.
The medium-term bias remains bullish, but momentum traders should exercise caution when chasing peaks at this stage.
### The price breakout strength of silver faces the risk of overextension.
The daily chart for silver shows a strong bullish breakout, with XAG price rising towards the resistance area between $64-$65. The broader trend structure remains decisively bullish, supported by the rising midpoint line of the Bollinger Bands and continued closes above the key moving averages.
The price of silver has respected higher highs and higher levels since mid-year, confirming the continuation of the strong trend.
However, momentum indicators point to the risk of short-term exhaustion. The relative strength index near 74 indicates overbought conditions, which are historically associated with pullbacks or short-term consolidations rather than immediate trend reversals.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains positive and is expanding, indicating that bullish momentum is still present beneath the surface.
Key bearish levels to watch at $56.90, with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A shallow correction to this area is likely, allowing for a reset of momentum while maintaining the broader uptrend.
However, a breakout below $52.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) will create bullish momentum. The bullish outlook will only be invalidated if the price falls below $44.56, which sets the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the positive side, a clean daily close above $65 could open the door to psychological extension levels beyond current expectations.
Overall, silver remains in a strong bullish regime, but traders should anticipate volatility and the possibility of a mean reversion before the next sustained rise. Risk management becomes crucial at these high levels, especially for late entries.
