Bitcoin, gold, and silver continue to attract attention ahead of this week's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike.
With macroeconomic issues lining up, experts predict immediate volatility in the prices of Bitcoin, gold (XAU), and silver (XAG).
Bitcoin gold silver outlook…major macro issues ahead
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced on Thursday and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike scheduled for Friday are expected to signal high volatility in safe assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver. Against this backdrop, we summarize the outlook for Bitcoin, gold, and silver this week as follows.
Bitcoin bearish structure…weakening rebound
The daily chart for Bitcoin appears closer to a rebound than a confirmed upward reversal. The price has deviated from the ascending channel, suggesting that the relief rebound after a steep decline from the $126,000 peak is weakening.
The short-term trend has improved, but Bitcoin still remains below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages of $55,100 and $101,022, respectively. These ranges act as dynamic resistance, following Bitcoin prices from above.
The RSI has recovered from the oversold zone and is currently stabilizing in the mid-40s. A buy signal is expected to be captured soon. This signal occurs when the RSI (purple) breaks above the signal line (yellow).
Meanwhile, the MACD line is positioned above the signal line, indicating that upward momentum is technically being maintained. However, it can also be confirmed that the indicator remains in the negative (-) territory, suggesting that selling pressure is still strong.
Although the histogram bars are gradually shrinking and the green light is fading, this only indicates that buying pressure is weakening, not that upward investors have given up. The histogram remains in the positive (+) territory.
The analysis of the ascending volume profile (horizontal green bars) confirms that several investors are waiting to buy above the psychological level of $90,000.
For Bitcoin to transition into a full-fledged upward trend, it must break through the lower part of the ascending channel and recover the $100,000 range. Investors looking to bet on upward potential should ideally enter after confirming candle closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018.
Until now, recovery attempts within the range are expected to continue, with a high risk of a strong pullback at the main resistance level. The overall market still shows cautious movement, but signs of stabilization are gradually emerging in some areas.
Gold prices are approaching the upper part of the rising channel…sell signal
Similar to Bitcoin, the 4-hour chart for gold also shows a distinct ascending channel and is currently targeting $4,381, which is the all-time high for XAU.
Structurally, gold prices have maintained an upward trend while repeatedly renewing highs and lows, sustaining channel support throughout November and December.
However, there are signs that momentum is somewhat diverging. The RSI has fallen from near the peak to the mid-60s, showing clear sell waiting signals. This signal is triggered when the RSI falls below the signal line.
This indicates that it is not a trend reversal, but the likelihood of a correction down to the channel support line has increased. The inflow of gold buying pressure may increase in this range.
The major Fibonacci retracement levels support this analysis. Even if a correction occurs down to $4,265 (23.6% Fibonacci) or $4,193 (38.2% Fibonacci), it does not pose a problem for the overall trend.
If deeper corrections occur down to $4,134, the upward trend may break. If the price closes below $4,134 (61.8% Fibonacci), the bullish rationale is invalidated.
As long as gold prices do not clearly fall below $4,076 on the 4-hour chart, a short-term correction or bottoming phase is likely.
The medium-term trend remains positive, but short-term momentum investors should exercise caution regarding further upward chasing.
Silver price bullish…overheating risk
The daily chart for silver (XAG) shows a strong upward breakout. Silver prices (XAG) are surging towards the $64-$65 resistance range. The overall structure clearly maintains an upward trend, supported by the rising Bollinger Bands and the upper closing of the key moving averages.
The price of silver confirms that the bullish trend has continued throughout the year, with both highs and lows consistently rising.
However, the momentum indicators are sending warning signals due to short-term overheating. The RSI is nearing the 74 level, entering the overbought zone, which is more related to short-term corrections or bottoming rather than an immediate trend reversal.
At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is expanding positively. This signals that the potential bullish trend is still valid.
The key downward support level is located at $56.90, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. If a short-term correction occurs in this range, it can maintain the upward trend while resetting momentum.
However, if the price falls below $52.10, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, upward momentum may weaken. If the price drops below $44.56, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the bullish outlook could lead to a reversal as the price declines.
If daily closes occur above $65, it may allow for entry into a psychologically expansive range beyond current expectations.
Overall, silver maintains a strong bullish phase. However, investors must adequately consider volatility and short-term price adjustments. It is especially important for new entrants to manage risks carefully in this range.
