The US non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and this significant data directly influences the direction of gold prices. The market is also actively discussing whether gold prices can break through the 4400 USD/ounce mark and set a new historical high.
From the factors supporting the rise in gold prices, the current fundamentals are quite favorable: the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in December to a policy rate of 3.50%-3.75%, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Coupled with the Federal Reserve purchasing 40 billion USD in short-term treasury bills to release liquidity, this directly supports gold prices; global physical gold ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive months, with November's inflow reaching 5.2 billion USD. Central banks continue to purchase gold, and the rise in demand for safe-haven assets has further created a pattern of "high volatility and upward price centralization" in the gold market. In the context of confirmed rate cuts and a loosening of liquidity, the mid-term pricing anchor for gold points to declining real interest rates and rising safe-haven demand, making the long-term bullish logic solid.
However, the performance of the non-farm data will become a key variable in the short term. If employment and wage growth are below expectations, "cooling employment" will drive a repricing of rate cut expectations, and gold prices are likely to surge towards 4400 USD/ounce; but if the data is significantly stronger than expected, the market's high interest rate expectations will rise, pushing up the USD index and real interest rates, leading to a phase of pressure on gold prices, potentially delaying the pace of breaking through 4400, and even resulting in a short-term correction.
Overall, even if the non-farm data brings short-term volatility, the trend of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and central bank gold purchases will remain unchanged next year, making a long-term breakthrough of 4400 USD/ounce for gold a likely event. In the short term, close attention should be paid to market reactions after the data is released.
