Bitcoin, gold, and silver are in focus this week ahead of the U.S. CPI on Thursday and possible rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Macroeconomic events raise analysts' expectations that the prices of BTC, gold (XAU), and silver (XAG) may fluctuate significantly.
Price forecast for Bitcoin, gold, and silver before important macroeconomic news.
The U.S. CPI on Thursday and the almost certain BoJ rate hike on Friday will raise the price of Bitcoin as well as the volatility of safe-haven assets consisting of gold and silver. In this setup, the outlook for BTC, gold, and silver this week is as follows.
The rebound weakens amid the bearish market structure of Bitcoin's price.
The daily chart of Bitcoin shows a counter-trend rebound, not yet a confirmed bullish reversal. The price has dropped from the ascending channel, suggesting that the relief rally may be fading after the steep drop from the $126,000 peak.
The short-term structure has improved, but Bitcoin is still below key moving averages; the 50-day and 100-day EMAs are $95,601 and $101,022. These levels have been following Bitcoin's price from above, acting as dynamic resistance.
The RSI rises from an overbought area and is now stabilizing near the value of 40, and the waiting buy signal indicates a strengthening of the short-term sentiment. The buy signal occurs when the RSI (purple zone) crosses above the signal line (yellow zone).
At the same time, the MACD line remains above the signal line, meaning the technical bullish sentiment continues. Sellers still show strength as this indicator remains in the negative territory.
Although histogram bars are decreasing and the green hue is fading, this only indicates a weakening of buying pressure, not selling by bulls. It is worth noting that the histograms still remain in positive territory.
Bullish Volume Profile (green horizontal bars) analysis indicates that there is a large demand area above as buyers await to get in when BTC rises above the psychological level of $90,000.
For Bitcoin to transition to a continuation phase, the price must break above the lower boundary of the ascending channel and reach the $100,000 mark again. Investors should wait for the candle to close above $98,018, which is above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, before potentially capitalizing on a bullish move.
Until then, the market favors a volatile retracement trade, and the risk of rejection at resistance levels is elevated. The overall trend remains cautious, but initial signs of stabilization are noticeable.
The price of gold is near the upper boundary in an ascending channel, and sell signals are appearing.
Just like Bitcoin, the 4-hour chart of gold clearly shows an ascending channel, where the price seeks a new all-time high of $4,381 in XAU.
The structure remains bullish as gold continues to make higher highs and lows while respecting the channel's support levels in November and December.
However, sentiment is beginning to diverge. The RSI has bent down from high values, settling in the mid to upper 60s, and a clear, waiting sell signal indicates a fading bullish sentiment. The sell signal is triggered when RSI drops below the signal line.
This does not yet indicate a directional reversal but a possibility of a drop towards the channel support level. Such a move could provide late XAU bulls with a more favorable opportunity to enter the gold trade.
Important Fibonacci retracement levels support this view. A corrective move to $4,265 (23.6% Fibonacci level) or $4,193 (38.2% Fib) would be fully in line with the continuation of the uptrend.
Deeper correction to $4,134 is worth examining closely, especially if the same channel breaks and the bullish assumption is invalidated if the price drops below the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
As long as the price of gold does not clearly break and close below $4,076 on the 4-hour chart, the current situation favors short-term consolidation or a slight downward correction.
The medium-term outlook remains strong, but momentum traders should be cautious when chasing peaks at this stage.
The rise in silver prices faces overheating risks.
The daily chart of silver shows a strong upward rally as the price of XAG approaches the resistance zone of $64–65. The broader trend structure remains strongly bullish; the Bollinger middle band rises and closes strongly above the EMA levels.
The price of silver has made higher highs and lows since mid-year, strongly reinforcing the continuation of the trend.
However, sentiment indicators show a potential risk of short-term fatigue. The RSI is near 74 and indicates an overbought situation, which has historically led to short corrections or consolidations, not usually a direct trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains positive and strengthening, indicating that the bullish sentiment is still strong in the background.
Key support levels are found around $56.90, highlighted by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A gentle decline to this area could be positive, as it would give sentiment time to stabilize while maintaining the broader uptrend.
However, if the price falls below $52.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), the bullish sentiment may be jeopardized. The bullish outlook is nullified if the price drops below $44.56, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level lies.
If the daily close rises clearly above $65, it could open up possibilities for psychologically important follow-up levels above current forecasts.
Overall, silver remains in a strong uptrend, but investors should prepare for volatility and a possible return to the mean before the next longer rise. Risk management is critical at these high levels, especially for latecomers.
