Bitcoin, gold, and silver remain in focus this week ahead of the US CPI on Thursday and the expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
With the macroeconomic narratives in place, analysts signal immediate volatility for BTC, XAU, and XAG prices.
Price forecast for Bitcoin, gold, and silver ahead of key macro news.
The US CPI on Thursday and the almost certain interest rate hike from the BoJ on Friday set Bitcoin prices and the prices of safe commodities like gold and silver up for volatility. Against this backdrop, the outlook for BTC, XAU, and XAG looks like this week.
Relief rally weakens in bearish Bitcoin price structure.
Bitcoin's daily chart shows a counter-trend rise rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. The price has fallen out of a rising channel, suggesting that a relief rally may weaken after the sharp drop from the peak at $126,000.
Although the short-term structure has improved, Bitcoin remains below key moving averages, including the 50-day and 100-day EMA at $95,601 and $101,022, respectively. These levels have continuously followed BTC prices from above and act as dynamic resistance.
RSI recovers from oversold territory, stabilizing now near the middle of the 40s. A pending buy signal suggests strengthened short-term momentum. This buy signal is triggered when the RSI (purple band) crosses above its signal line (yellow band).
At the same time, the MACD line remains above the signal line, indicating that bullish momentum technically still has control. However, sellers still show strength, as this indicator is in negative territory.
Even though the histograms are contracting and losing their green color, this only indicates that buying pressure is weakening, not that the bulls have given up. Note that the histograms remain in positive territory.
An analysis of the bullish Volume Profile (green horizontal bars) shows significant underlying demand, as late 'dip' buyers wait to interact with BTC above the psychological level of $90,000.
For Bitcoin to enter a new bullish continuation phase, the price must break above the lower boundary of the rising channel and regain the $100,000 level. Traders looking to capitalize on this potential should consider waiting for a daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018.
Until then, the market favors price increases within a consolidation range, with increased risk of rejection at resistance levels. The overall trend remains cautious, but the first signs of stabilization have appeared.
The gold price rising channel approaches the upper limit while sell signals emerge.
Similarly to Bitcoin, gold's 4-hour chart highlights a clear upward channel, where the price is currently aiming for an all-time high of $4,381 for XAU.
Structurally, the trend remains bullish, as gold continues to establish higher highs and higher lows, while the support level in the channel has been respected throughout November and December.
There are still signs that the momentum is beginning to wane. The RSI has turned from high levels, now hovering around the middle to upper 60s, and a clearly marked pending sell signal suggests weakened upside momentum. The sell signal is triggered when the RSI crosses below the signal line.
This does not indicate a trend reversal, but increases the likelihood of a pullback towards the support level of the channel. Such a movement would provide late XAU bulls with a favorable entry point in gold trading.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels support this view. A correction down to $4,265 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) or $4,193 (38.2% Fib) would be fully compatible with further trend.
A deeper correction to $4,134 will only be concerning if there is also a break below the channel, and the bullish setup is invalidated if the price breaks and closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Unless the gold price breaks and closes clearly below $4,076 on the 4-hour chart, the current setup favors short-term consolidation or a correction down.
The medium-term outlook remains positive, but momentum-based traders should exercise caution if they are chasing new highs now.
The strength of the silver price breakout faces the risk of overextension.
Silver's daily chart shows a strong bullish breakout, with the XAG price rising towards the resistance zone at $64-$65. The broad trend structure remains clearly bullish, supported by a rising Bollinger Band middle line and sustained closing above key moving averages.
The silver price has respected higher highs and higher lows since mid-year, confirming strong trend continuation.
However, momentum indicators suggest the risk of short-term exhaustion. The RSI near 74 signals overbought conditions, which historically have been associated with short-term corrections or consolidations, rather than immediate trend reversals.
At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains positive and rising, indicating that bullish momentum is still intact beneath the surface.
Key support levels to watch are at $56.90, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A shallow retracement down towards this area is likely to be constructive, as it gives momentum time to reset while maintaining the underlying uptrend.
A decline below $52.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) would, however, threaten the positive development. The bullish scenario becomes invalid only if the price falls below $44.56, marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the upside, a clear daily close above $65 could open up further gains towards psychological levels above today's projections.
Overall, silver still finds itself in a strong bullish phase, but traders should expect volatility and possible correction before the next solid rise. Risk management becomes extra important at these levels, especially for those entering late.
