$ETH Doubao's overall reasoning for ETH

1. Current price level corresponding to retracement ratio

High point 4956, current 2623, total drop = 4956-2623=2333, retracement ratio ≈ 2333÷4956≈47.1%, between the 0.382-0.5 range, not touching the core median support.

2. Further decline: core support levels (strength from weak to strong)

1. 0.5 support level: 4956×0.5=2478 (mid-term key support, primary betting point for decline)

2. 0.618 support level: 4956×(1-0.618)=1903 (strong support, core area for extreme drop halt)

3. 0.786 support level: 4956×(1-0.786)=1061 (super extreme support, triggering probability extremely low)

3. Future rebound: core resistance levels (from near to far)

1. 0.382 resistance level: 2623+2333×0.382≈3514 (short-term primary pressure, easy to meet resistance and fall back)

2. 0.5 resistance level: 2623+2333×0.5≈3789 (mid-term strong pressure, breakthrough requires volume)

3. 0.618 resistance level: 2623+2333×0.618≈4065 (key heavy pressure, breakthrough can return to mid-term fluctuation range)

Core conclusion

Currently in a shallow drop fluctuation segment, short-term priority looks at resistance near 3514; if it breaks below 2478, it is highly likely to probe the strong support at 1903, and if the rebound lacks volume, it is easy to repeat adjustments.