On December 16, 2025, the gold market showed a pattern of high volatility in international gold prices, with different types of domestic gold prices showing a divergence in trends. The battle between bulls and bears was intense, and short-term pullback risks were emerging. Below is a detailed analysis:
1. Performance of various gold prices: Internationally, the latest quote for London gold is $4306.18 per ounce, a slight increase of $2.25, with a rise of 0.05%. It had previously surged to $4350.6 per ounce before quickly retreating, forming a shooting star candlestick pattern with a very long upper shadow on the daily chart. Domestically, gold T+D is quoted at 970.28 yuan per gram, a slight decrease of 4.81 yuan, with a decline of 0.49%; Shanghai gold main contract is quoted at 975.52 yuan per gram, down 1.76 yuan, with a decline of 0.18%; prices at brand gold stores remain firm, with Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang gold prices reaching 1353 yuan per gram, an increase of 0.15%-0.37% compared to yesterday.
2. Market driving factors: On the bullish side, the Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut this year has begun a rate-cutting cycle, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold; the trend of global central banks purchasing gold remains unchanged, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 12 consecutive months, providing long-term support for gold prices; tensions in the Middle East and other geopolitical issues, combined with a pullback in popular sectors of the U.S. stock market, have led to a flow of risk-averse funds into the gold market. On the bearish side, U.S. Treasury yields have risen for five consecutive days to a nearly three-week high of 4.411%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold; key economic data such as U.S. retail sales and PCE will be released this week, and if the data exceeds expectations, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to signal a pause in interest rate cuts, which would be bearish for gold prices.
3. Technical analysis and future outlook: From a technical perspective, the previous upward trend of London gold on the daily chart has not been broken, but the KDJ indicator shows signs of a death cross, and the MACD red bars are shrinking. The shooting star pattern observed yesterday indicates a high probability of entering an adjustment phase on the daily chart. Domestic gold T+D has solid support around 960 yuan, with strong buying strength below. Institutions and analysts generally believe that short-term fluctuations in gold prices will intensify, with a risk of pullback. Attention should be focused on the resistance range of $4335 - $4345 for London gold and support levels of $4290-4310, while domestic gold T+D should pay attention to support around 960 yuan.
Gold can be bought at 4290-4310, with a target looking at 4330-4350#美联储降息 #BinanceABCs #美联储FOMC会议