Currently, the cryptocurrency market has become a siphon for the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock market failed to rebound yesterday, with the three major stock indices collectively closing down for two consecutive trading days. The cryptocurrency market also couldn't escape this yesterday, and today it's a sea of red, forcing us to pay attention to macro information from the U.S. stock market.
Today, we need to focus on the non-farm payroll data that the Federal Reserve is about to release. This delayed heavyweight report may provide crucial clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for next year.
Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes that if the report shows moderate weakness in U.S. employment data, it may actually boost the stock market. He pointed out that the market has returned to a state where good news for the economy is bad news for the stock market, and conversely, bad news is good news for the market. He explained that while a thriving labor market is beneficial for the economy, it reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year.
According to Bloomberg, economists expect that the non-farm payrolls in November will increase by 50,000, and the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5%, reaching a new high since 2021. Due to the government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has interrupted data collection, so this report will include some data from both October and November, but will not publish household survey statistics for October, such as the unemployment rate.
