【2025-12-16】
【ETH/USDT Dual Time Frame Trend Tracking System】Short-term Version
**Overall Direction Determination (1-hour Chart)**：
Bearish Direction (Only Short)
- Price ≈2,945 < EMA20 (3,005) < EMA50 (3,058)
- EMA20 and EMA50 are almost parallel and downward, price continues to operate below both EMAs
- MACD Dead Cross with continuous green bars (MACD: -7.84, bar value negative)
Overall showing a slow downward trend, strictly only short operations allowed, no counter-trend longs permitted.
**Entry Rules (5-minute Chart)**：
Current price ≈2,943, slightly rebounding above the recent low of 2,890, but has not effectively broken through EMA20/EMA50 (around 2,953 zone).
Preferred Rebound Short (Low Risk):
- Price rebounds close to EMA20 (~2,953) or EMA50 (~2,954) or previous resistance level (~3,000-3,050 zone)
- Wait for confirmation of shooting star, evening star, long upper shadow candlestick, bearish engulfing or bearish engulfing pattern
- If accompanied by increased trading volume, higher priority
Secondary Breakthrough Short (Trend Following):
- If breaking below recent low of 2,890.51 → Enter short after confirming rebound does not break that level
Current 5-minute chart rebound strength is limited, no clear bearish pattern, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to the 2,950-2,970 zone to appear reversal candlestick before entering short.
**Stop Loss and Take Profit (Fixed Risk Control)**：
- Stop Loss: Recent swing high (e.g., 20-50 points above the rebound high, or 3,000-3,050 zone)
- Fixed risk per trade 1.5% of principal
- Take Profit: Profit/Loss Ratio ≥2:1
- First Take Profit: 50% position exit at 2R
- Remaining 50% hold for Fibonacci extension levels (1.272/1.618, calculated from recent high of 3,177, potential target below 2,700-2,550 zone)
**Bonus/Filters**：
- If entering in the Fibonacci 0.618-0.786 retracement zone (calculated from drop of 3,177-2,890, golden zone approximately 2,980-3,060), can add 1x position (total risk ≤3%)
- Priority on increased trading volume + confirmation of bearish pattern
- Currently not before weekends/major events, normal operations allowed
**Summary**：Clear bearish trend, short-term bias weakly fluctuating. Observe or wait for the 5-minute chart to rebound to the EMA zone to confirm reversal pattern before shorting. Strict risk control, do not force open positions without clear signals. $ETH
