The current sentiment on Wall Street is actually quite twisted, with a consensus behind it summarized in one sentence: bad news may actually be good news.
You can see clues from several core assets:
Gold is slightly rising, indicating that funds are looking for a safe haven, but we are far from a panic-driven influx stage;
Crude oil continues to weaken, reflecting that the market is not optimistic about future economic demand;
Bitcoin has clearly retreated, as the most liquidity-sensitive asset, it has first digested the tightening expectations.
The data at 21:30 tonight is a key observation point.
If employment weakens, the market will bet on a more aggressive rate cut path from the Federal Reserve next year, which may actually be positive for the stock market;
But if the data is too strong, rate cut expectations will be suppressed, and risk assets may lead a correction.
More subtly, due to the long-term suspension of the UAE government, some statistical criteria are not complete, leaving a large space for subsequent revisions. This also means—regardless of whether the data is good or bad, institutions are hesitant to fully bet.
The result is the current market:
The direction is unclear, funds are cautious, and no one is willing to place heavy bets at this position.
