The Russell 2000 Index has just set a new all-time high, and this signal carries significant weight in the crypto market.

On December 15, the Russell 2000, representing U.S. small-cap stocks, successfully broke through the previous high of November 2021, officially refreshing the historical record. Looking back in history, in late 2017 and early 2021, this index saw significant 'risk appetite spillover' in the 3-6 months following its all-time highs, with altcoin market capitalizations generally rising by 200%-400%. This is not a coincidence at the price level, but rather a result of a shift in funding style.

From on-chain and structural indicators, the altcoin season has not truly begun yet. The Altcoin Season Index is only at 22, still in a typical 'Bitcoin Season.' However, it is noteworthy that such extremely low readings often appear near cycle turning points. At the end of 2020, this index also fell below 20, and subsequently triggered an epic altcoin rally.

The technical structure of BTC's dominance is also changing. Currently, the dominance is forming a rising wedge pattern, with the monthly MACD showing a bearish crossover. In 2017 and 2021, after such signals appeared, BTC's dominance usually declined rapidly by 10-15 percentage points within a few months, as funds began to spread towards ETH and other altcoin sectors.

There are also early signs of fund flow verification. Despite BTC price pressures, some altcoin assets have begun to receive structural attention. For example, XRP ETF has seen continuous net inflows, while ETH has shown noticeable net outflows from exchanges, indicating that medium to long-term funds are preparing in advance for non-BTC assets.

If we break down according to historical cycles, we are currently roughly in the second phase: BTC has ended its one-sided rise, entering a consolidation phase, and funds are beginning to test ETH and leading Layer 1s. If Ethereum strengthens, then DeFi, Layer 2, and some mid to small-cap sectors may fully activate.

It is important to emphasize that this does not mean that the altcoin season has been confirmed, but rather that the probabilities are shifting. In a phase where sentiment indicators are still in extreme fear and market attention is highly concentrated on BTC, it often serves as a window period to prepare for the next round of structural market movements.

History does not simply repeat itself, but the rhythm often resembles. Real opportunities usually arise when 'the majority are still in doubt.'