Recently, has the talk of 'MEME coins have died' taken over the screen? Especially when that big shot from CryptoQuant threw out the opinion that 'Meme coins are dead,' half of my friends were liquidating their SHIB holdings while the other half were shouting 'buy the dip or run for your life.' Don't rush to take sides! As someone who has been digging into on-chain data for five years, let me tell you the truth: the narrative of SHIB is not just about 'life or death'; the twists are more thrilling than a suspense drama.
Let me give a lesson to those who are unaware of the truth. On the surface, SHIB indeed looks tragic to the point of being heart-wrenching. In October 2025, it directly dropped to $0.00001013, which is nearly an 80% decline compared to the peak in 2024, and over 88% compared to its historical peak, truly a 'ankle chop.' The daily trading volume also dried up, falling 62% from the 2024 peak, resembling a 'past it internet celebrity' in decline.
What’s even more heartbreaking is that this tragedy is not just SHIB's alone, but a collective 'winter' for the entire MEME coin sector. Pepe's market value evaporated by over 7.1 billion dollars, and former popular players like Official Trump and Pudgy Penguins have not escaped double-digit declines this year. Looking at the overall market environment, the 'altcoin season index' that measures the heat of altcoins has flatlined at a historical low of 26, while Bitcoin's dominance has surged past 58%, reaching a new high since 2023. In short, funds are running to safer places, and high-risk MEME coins have naturally become the abandoned objects.
The technical aspects are all green, making it very concerning. SHIB's price has been below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages for six consecutive months, forming a typical 'bearish arrangement.' Those who understand technical analysis know that this is a signal of 'continuous decline' in traditional markets. The descending triangle pattern on the daily chart has been interpreted by many analysts as a 'downward continuation,' meaning that the current decline is merely a halftime break, and there may be more severe declines ahead. Seeing this, are there brothers who have quietly opened their trading software to cut losses? Stop! The on-chain data coming next is key to unlocking the mystery of SHIB.
As someone who has been dealing with on-chain data for years, I firmly believe that the surface price fluctuations are all 'emotional noise,' and the real cards are hidden on-chain. The on-chain data for SHIB is a real-life example of 'fire and ice.' Although large transaction volumes have dropped nearly 70%, the number of daily active addresses has actually increased by 3.9%. What does this indicate? It shows that those holding large amounts of chips (whales) are fleeing, but the enthusiasm of ordinary retail investors has not faded at all; instead, they are quietly entering the market. It's like a concert where the wealthy in the front row have left, but the fans in the back are still cheering hard; the venue hasn't cooled off at all.
What's more interesting is the burn data of SHIB, which is one of its core highlights. The burn rate in August 2025 skyrocketed to 5800%, with 4.12 million SHIB permanently destroyed, equivalent to being 'evaporated' directly from the circulating pool. Recently, it was even more severe, with a single-day burn rate surging 530%, and 37.53 million SHIB permanently removed. As of now, a total of 410 trillion SHIB has been destroyed, reducing the circulating supply to 583.31 trillion. Some may think 'this amount of destruction is nothing,' but it's important to understand that the deflationary mechanism is key to supporting prices in the long term, and the principle of 'many small amounts make a big difference' also applies in the crypto market.
The movements of the whales are even more puzzling, perfectly illustrating the saying 'some resign to return home, while others rush to the examination hall at night.' On one hand, the number of addresses holding over 100 trillion SHIB has dropped from 12 to 5, with these 'big brothers' cashing out and leaving; on the other hand, Arkham data shows that an anonymous wallet related to Coinbase Prime has doubled its SHIB holdings in a single day, now holding 193.4 billion SHIB, worth about 2.37 million dollars. This situation of 'some escape while others take over' indicates a significant divergence in the market's view of SHIB, and also means it hasn't reached the point of 'completely cooling off.'
Now let's talk about the SHIB team's efforts to transform, which can only be described as 'mixed feelings.' They have been trying to shake off the label of 'MEME coin' and move towards the direction of 'utility coin,' but the performance of their core project, the Shibarium layer 2 network, has indeed been a bit disappointing. According to data from DeFi Llama, Shibarium has attracted a total of only 18 developers, with total locked value dropping to 878,000 dollars, less than 0.01% of the Base network. Even more awkwardly, the stablecoin sector is completely blank, with no mainstream stablecoins willing to deploy on this network. Recently, they faced a security crisis when the core decentralized application ShibaSwap was hacked, and the team had no choice but to suspend bridge services, causing the entire network's activity to basically stagnate. Reading this, I can't help but feel nervous for them.
However, there are still bright spots in the ecosystem. ShibaSwap's TVL has increased from 3.94 million dollars at the end of April 2025 to 4.5 million dollars at the end of May 2025, a 14.2% increase in 30 days, indicating that there is still funding recognizing its ecological value. Data from ShibariumScan also shows that daily transaction volume has remained stable at over 4.5 million, proving that this network still has a certain basic utility and is not a completely 'air project.' The community hasn't been idle either; they launched the governance token TREAT in January 2025, claiming to be 'the key to unlocking the entire ecosystem's enhanced functions'; and WOOF Wars: Farming 2.0 introduced an interactive model of 'vote, earn, win,' attempting to innovate in liquidity mining. Although we can't say whether these efforts will succeed, it is clear that the SHIB community has not given up.
After discussing the surface and on-chain, let's talk about SHIB's real 'heartfelt troubles.' These structural issues, if not resolved, will only make the transformation path more difficult. The first problem is the overly concentrated holding structure, with the top 100 addresses holding over 65% of the circulating volume. What does this mean? A few whales can manipulate price fluctuations with just a few clicks, and ordinary investors can only be led by the nose. Over time, who will still have confidence? The second problem is the lack of practicality. Although the team has been working on ecology, SHIB's main uses are still limited to NFT trading and in-game purchases, lacking real, widespread practical application scenarios. Compared to Dogecoin, which has already been accepted by major companies like Tesla, SHIB is still far behind in commercial applications. The third problem is the common issue with MEME coins—emotional driving. In a bull market, it can soar based on hotspots and sentiment; but once the market enters a consolidation or bear phase, investors become rational and start focusing on the actual value of assets. At this point, SHIB's issues of 'no applications, no cash flow, no technological innovation' will be exposed, leading to a natural and relentless decline.
Finally, let's address the question everyone is most concerned about: Will SHIB disappear in 2026? My view is very clear: it will definitely not disappear completely, but it is highly likely to be further marginalized.
From an existential perspective, SHIB has two major 'lifelines': one is its strong brand recognition; whenever MEME coins are mentioned, many people's first thought is SHIB; the second is its large community base, commonly referred to as the 'SHIB Army,' which currently has over 1.51 million wallets holding SHIB. This sense of community cohesion is not formed in a day or two, nor can it disappear overnight. In the crypto market, having a community means having hope; many crypto assets in the past have revived thanks to community support after long periods of stagnation, and SHIB may very well replicate this miracle.
However, in terms of importance, SHIB's status is likely to continue declining. The trend of the entire market is shifting towards actual value, with investors increasingly valuing a project's technical strength and application scenarios, rather than simply trading narratives. This trend may become more pronounced in 2026, when truly capable crypto projects will stand out, and if SHIB cannot achieve substantial breakthroughs in ecological construction, it may very well be marginalized by the market.
I have seen price predictions for SHIB in 2026 from multiple analysis institutions, with ranges between 0.0000047 and 0.000040 dollars, indicating a vast fluctuation. This shows that everyone recognizes that SHIB will continue to exist, but its prospects are full of uncertainty. In my view, there are three possible scenarios for SHIB's future: In an optimistic scenario, if the overall crypto market rebounds and SHIB's ecological construction makes breakthroughs, or even if large enterprises accept it as a payment method, the price may see significant increases; in a neutral scenario, if the market stabilizes and SHIB's development work continues, but the adoption rate of ecological applications is limited, the price will remain volatile; in a pessimistic scenario, if the market remains sluggish and SHIB's development progresses slowly, it will further lose market share, and the price may once again experience significant declines.
Ultimately, the future of SHIB may not shine as brightly as before, transforming from a 'main character' to a 'supporting character' and finding a niche position in the vast cryptocurrency ecosystem may be its most likely fate. The road to transformation is bound to be fraught with difficulties, but one thing I firmly believe is that in this miracle-filled cryptocurrency market, never easily conclude on an asset that has a strong community. After all, who would have thought that SHIB once created a miracle of a 21,600,000-fold increase from historical lows to historical highs in 2021?
Finally, I want to ask you in front of the screen: Do you think SHIB can successfully transform into a 'utility coin'? Will you choose to continue holding or decisively exit? Feel free to leave your views in the comments, and follow me @链上标哥 so you don't get lost!
