Why does $BTC continue to decline under the "optimistic outlook" consensus? How to operate better for survival!

What is the reason?

Currently, it is a typical optimistic outlook, but the short-term situation is indeed not optimistic,

We can understand this round of BTC decline as: "deteriorating liquidity expectations + weak demand + ETF outflows + deleveraging + low liquidity environment" overlapping at the same time.

If there are 2 positive factors here, I believe December should be an explosion month, but unfortunately, the market is just like this, changing rapidly. What we need to do is accept and understand, rather than being complacent!

Against the backdrop of the BOJ meeting, U.S. employment/inflation data, and ETF fund flows still wavering, the market direction should lean more towards a benchmark scenario of "high volatility, weak range fluctuations"; unless there is continuous improvement on the demand side (sustained net inflows into ETFs, sudden information favorable for interest rate cuts, overall warming of risk assets), it is difficult to quickly return to a one-sided upward trend.

How to operate?

The following is purely my personal opinion, as everyone has different tolerances for positions and different investment structures, so it is just for reference and not investment advice!

1) I suggest everyone do one thing first: write down the "maximum acceptable drawdown for the next month";

If the account drawdown reaches -20% in the next month, will I lose sleep?

If it draws down to -30%, will I be forced to cut losses?

Can I withstand the process of "falling first and then rising"?

This number determines whether you should reduce your position and by how much;

Otherwise, any operation may turn into emotional trading.

2) Reduce risk one level before the event window, but do not go all in

Under the premise of not adding leverage, with "controlling drawdown for the next month" as the primary goal, observe your positions. I believe that a stablecoin position of around 30-40%, a mainstream coin position of about 50%, plus a little other position, is relatively reasonable. So I suggest everyone:

Reduce the position from 80% Crypto to 60%-70% (prioritize reducing other token positions, and then a small reduction in BTC), increase the stablecoin to 30%-40%, and then use ETF fund flows turning positive + prices stabilizing as conditions for replenishment;

If it continues to weaken after the event, then reduce one level further.

In short, under the premise of not being anxious, reduce your position, and then be patient to wait and observe.