Market Context
Bitcoin remains in a daily downtrend following the completion of a large Cypher Harmonic structure. After the impulsive selloff from point C, price has entered a bearish flag consolidation, reinforcing the probability of trend continuation lower rather than reversal.
This is classic impulse → consolidation → continuation behavior.
Harmonic Structure Recap
XA: Strong impulsive advance.
AB: Corrective retracement (~0.58).
BC: Extension into 1.26, forming exhaustion at point C.
CD (In Progress): Expansion toward 0.786 of XC, projecting completion near $60K–$66K.
The harmonic structure provides the macro roadmap; the bearish flag provides the execution trigger.
Bearish Flag Breakdown
Flag formed after a high-momentum selloff (flagpole).
Price is consolidating inside a descending corrective channel.
Volume has contracted during consolidation — textbook bearish flag behavior.
Recent rejection from the upper boundary confirms seller dominance.
A breakdown below the flag low should trigger continuation toward the Cypher D zone.
Structure & Momentum
Market structure: Lower highs, lower lows intact.
Daily RSI:
Holding below 40
No bullish divergence present
Confirms bearish continuation bias
Prior demand levels have failed → now acting as resistance.
Trade Plan
Primary Setup: Bearish Continuation
Short Entry (Aggressive): Breakdown below flag support
Short Entry (Conservative): Pullback into $88K–$95K supply zone
Invalidation: Daily close above $95,000
Targets:
TP1: $78,000
TP2: $70,000
TP3: $60,000 – $66,000 (Cypher D completion / HTF demand)
Risk remains asymmetric to the downside while price stays below flag resistance.
Alternative Scenario
Only a clean daily close above $95K, followed by structure reclaim, would invalidate:
Bearish flag
Cypher continuation
Daily downtrend bias
Until then, all upside moves are corrective.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is aligning two high-probability bearish structures:
Cypher Harmonic continuation
Bearish flag consolidation
This confluence significantly increases the probability of a deeper corrective leg toward HTF demand. Patience favors sellers.
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: Daily / Swing
Pattern: Cypher + Bearish Flag
Invalidation: Daily close > $95K
Target Zone: $60K–$66K
