The core of trading is not the probability itself, but how to make decisions and manage risks using probabilistic thinking.

The market is always uncertain, and no one can guarantee that every trade will be profitable. Just like in Texas Hold'em, everyone has good cards, but skilled players rely on strategy and discipline to win in the long run. The key is to make decisions with a 'positive expected value' rather than relying on luck.

To translate probability into profit, three points are needed:

1️⃣ Positive expected value: The system can make money in the long term statistically, even if most trades lose, a small number of profitable trades can cover the losses.

2️⃣ Sufficient sample size: At least give the system 100 opportunities; don't dismiss the strategy due to short-term losses, and don't become overly confident because of one big profit.

3️⃣ Strict risk management: Control position sizes and stop-losses to ensure survival while waiting for the probabilistic edge to materialize.

Probabilistic thinking tests human nature: accept uncertainty, treat losses as costs, and acknowledge the 'wear and tear' of the system. The reason most people lose is not that the system is bad, but that they cannot control themselves.

Summary: The core of trading is the ability to face probabilities. Being able to execute calmly in uncertainty will lead you to become a winner in the market over the long term.