The latest U.S. non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and BTC has already dropped below $86,000. Can it effectively rebound tonight?

Today is December 16, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (9:30 PM Beijing Time). The U.S. will release the latest non-farm employment data. This report was delayed due to the government shutdown and covers data from October and November. The last September data only showed an increase of 119K, indicating a cooling labor market. The market expects an addition of about 50K-140K jobs this time; if the data is weaker than expected, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path; if strong, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, putting pressure on risk assets.

The current BTC price has dropped below $86,000, with a low approaching $85,800, and a decline of over 4% in the last 24 hours. The earlier drop was mainly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties: expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan, yen arbitrage unwinding, phase-out of ETFs, and a decline in global risk appetite. Technically, BTC has lost key support, with the RSI hovering in the oversold zone, and short-term bullish momentum is insufficient.

Can it effectively rebound tonight? The key depends on the non-farm results:

- **If the data is weak** (new jobs <100K, unemployment rate rises): favorable for risk assets, BTC is expected to rebound quickly to 88,000-90,000, and even test the 92,000 resistance. With rising expectations for interest rate cuts, buying pressure will be stimulated.

- **If the data is strong** (>150K): the dollar rebounds, and BTC may further test the 84,000 support, making a short-term reversal difficult.

In addition, on-chain data shows that whales have recently sold off, but the proportion of long-term holders is increasing, and supply tightening still supports the bottom. The year-end seasonal effect may become apparent after the data is released.

Overall, the probability of a rebound tonight is relatively high (60%), but it requires data confirmation. Suggestion: short-term players should pay attention to instant reactions to the data, holders should maintain a stop loss at 84,000, and observers should wait for a confirmation of the rebound before entering. Volatility will be intense after the non-farm release, control your positions!

Friends at Binance Square, what do you think about BTC's trend tonight? Is the data bearish or bullish? Let's discuss in the comments!