Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. non-farm payroll report and unemployment rate data will be announced. As an important barometer of the global financial market, non-farm data influences the volatility of the cryptocurrency market through the logical chain of 'employment performance → Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations → U.S. dollar liquidity → pricing of risk assets.' Its core transmission mechanism lies in: non-farm data (new employment figures and unemployment rate) directly reflect the economic prosperity of the United States, serving as a key basis for the Federal Reserve's adjustments to interest rate policy. When the data exceeds expectations and is strong, the market will bet that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts or maintain a hawkish stance, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar and a return of funds from risk assets, negatively impacting cryptocurrencies; conversely, if the data is weak, it will strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts, driving funds toward high-volatility assets, potentially boosting cryptocurrencies.

This non-farm data is particularly special. Previously, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that earlier employment data might have a 'bias towards overestimation,' and the market is skeptical about the true resilience of employment. Current market sentiment is highly sensitive, and the data release may trigger sharp fluctuations in cryptocurrencies—if new employment is significantly below expectations, it may trigger a dual-driven market of 'risk aversion + interest rate cut bets'; if the data significantly exceeds expectations, caution is warranted against short-term selling pressure from a rebound in the U.S. dollar. It is worth noting that historical data shows that non-farm night often features a game of 'expectation trading versus reality verification,' meaning that the market may overreact in the initial phase of data release, followed by a correction based on fundamentals, hence traders should be wary of the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' trap. $BTC #巨鲸动向