The markets are preparing for the release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Miran questions the prevailing view that inflation would remain stubbornly above the target level.

His comments come just a few days before the CPI data is released on Thursday. This U.S. economic data could influence investors' sentiment regarding Bitcoin.

Stephen Miran: The Fed is fighting against false inflation ahead of the CPI

The CME FedWatch Tool data shows that the markets are reassessing their interest rate expectations. Traders see a 75.6% probability that there will be no changes to the interest rate at the January 2026 Fed meeting.

This development relates to Miran's view that core inflation is already very close to the Fed's 2% target. According to him, most of the remaining excess is due to statistical distortions, not excessive demand.

"Core inflation is already very close to the Fed's 2% target," Miran stated on X. "Most of the extra inflation is due to statistical measurement processes, not excessive demand."

Miran's reasoning is centered around the inflation of housing prices. Housing costs are one of the largest and most persistent factors in measuring core inflation.

He noted that the Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index includes housing costs for all tenants. This causes a lag compared to real-time rents, which are updated only when leases are renewed. According to Miran, this lag distorts the current inflation picture.

Miran also addressed core inflation, which relates to services other than housing. He highlighted, for example, portfolio management fees, which he believes have a significant impact on core PCE, although asset management fees have declined over the long term.

Since these fees are measured based on managed assets, rising stock prices can mechanically raise measured prices. This can happen even if the actual costs incurred by consumers are declining.

"It would be foolish to chase statistical details instead of focusing on real consumer price values," Miran warned in his speech, hinting that monetary policy could become too tight if such distortions are reacted to.

Re-evaluation of tariffs and goods inflation when predictive data supports disinflation.

Miran challenged the common perception related to goods inflation that U.S. tariffs are the main drivers of fresh price increases.

Based on research into the elasticity of trade demand, he believes that the exporting country bears most of the costs of tariffs. Consequently, the impact on consumer prices remains quite small and likely temporary.

Although the calculations are made with cautious assumptions, Miran estimates the impact on consumer prices to be about 0.2 percent. Ideally, this corresponds mainly to statistical noise, not persistent inflationary pressure.

Miran's view is also supported by Bloomberg Economics' Anna Wong. She referred to future indicators based on which inflation may slow down again in the next six months.

Wong noted that the core goods CPI is once again on a downward trend, possibly as early as mid-2026. She added that the markets may be underestimating the extent of rate cuts in the future.

"The Fed may cut rates next year," Wong wrote on X. According to her, if these signals hold true, expectations for easing in 2026 are still too cautious.

These comments support the evolving discussion at the Fed about whether policymakers are still grappling with the inflation stemming from the root causes of 2022 or should focus on the current situation.

Since the CPI is published on Thursday, the data will be closely monitored to assess whether it reinforces or contradicts Miran's claim of inflation exaggeration and overly tight monetary policy before 2026.