Gold has risen for five consecutive trading days, approaching the historical high of 4381. This trend is mainly due to the dovish signals released by the Federal Reserve Chairman after the Fed's interest rate cut in December—he explicitly mentioned significant downside risks in the labor market and emphasized that policies should not overly suppress employment growth. This directly ignited market expectations for two rate cuts next year, further weakening the dollar and providing strong support for gold.
However, in the past two trading days, gold prices have surged and then retreated, with selling pressure evident in the short term. The reason for this is that the market is holding its breath awaiting the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll and retail data for November and October, respectively, leading some investors to take profits early to avoid risks, which further exacerbated selling pressure.
From a technical perspective, after consecutive increases, gold prices are facing resistance at the daily level and have entered a high-level oscillation pattern. Key support can be focused on the breakout level of 4260 from last Thursday; if this level is lost, the risk of a short-term decline will increase, with further support looking at the 10-day moving average of 4240 and the round number of 4200;
The upper pressure is first at the round level of 4300, followed by the intraday high of 4317 where the market faced resistance during two rebounds this Tuesday. If this level can be broken, gold prices are expected to challenge the Monday high of 4350. On the indicator front, the 5-day moving average maintains a golden cross, but the momentum of the MACD golden cross has clearly slowed down, the RSI indicator is turning downward, and the KDJ indicator has initially formed a dead cross, signaling overall short-term adjustment from a technical perspective.
Intraday operation suggestion: The market is focused on the non-farm payroll and retail data release tonight. Profit-taking pressure is causing gold prices to oscillate at high levels; it is suggested to adopt a range-trading approach.
Key support levels to watch are 4260, with further declines looking at 4240 and 4200; the upper pressure levels to focus on are 4300 and 4317, with a breakout looking up to 4350
