#美联储降息后前景不确定 $BTC $BNB $SOL Beijing time, on December 11, after the Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year, its subsequent policy path and the economic outlook for the United States and even the global economy are filled with uncertainty. The core reasons stem from multiple factors such as decision-making differences, economic contradictions, and political interference, as detailed below:
1. Unprecedented internal decision-making differences within the Federal Reserve: This rate cut vote saw 3 dissenting votes, with 1 person advocating for a 50 basis point cut, and 2 people advocating for maintaining the interest rate. This is the first occurrence of this situation since 2019. The dot plot further highlights the divisions; among the 19 officials, 7 believe that rate cuts should stop by 2026, 3 even advocate for rate hikes, while others believe that significant rate cuts should occur. This split makes it difficult for the market to capture clear policy signals.
2. Lack of economic data and conflicting targets: The U.S. government shutdown has led to the absence of official employment and inflation data for October and November, leaving the Federal Reserve in a state of "blind decision-making." At the same time, there is a dual conflict of inflation being above the 2% target and a cooling job market. While rate cuts aim to boost employment, they may also exacerbate inflation, making policy adjustments like walking a tightrope, difficult to find a balance.
3. Political interference threatens policy independence: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term will end in May 2026, and popular successor candidate Harker tends to favor easing, while Trump has repeatedly pressured for larger rate cuts. During the power transition period in the coming months, Powell may be sidelined, and if the new management's policies overly cater to political demands, it could trigger risks such as turbulence in the bond market.
4. Special variables weaken policy effectiveness: The AI investment boom makes policy effects difficult to predict; tech giants rely on low interest rates for AI capital expenditures, but AI may also replace some jobs, rendering the employment-boosting effect of rate cuts ineffective. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's resumption of short-term Treasury purchases is interpreted by the market as "quasi-QE," which counteracts the liquidity injection with hawkish rate cut guidance, further disrupting the market's judgment of future trends.
