Warning: The following content is a personal trading logic sharing based on the current candlestick, on-chain behavior, and market sentiment.
Everyone, calm down and look at the facts.
1 Technical analysis is stark: On the 1-hour chart, the BTC price is pressed below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the bandwidth expanding, which is a typical continuation pattern for a downtrend. Looking at the MACD, although the DIF and DEA have not deeply plunged, the histogram is increasing below the zero axis, indicating that bearish momentum is accumulating. Around 86200 is not support, just a breather during the decline.
2 On-chain does not lie: (Although not shown in the chart, I am constantly monitoring the data) In the past 24 hours, the net inflow to exchanges has slightly increased, especially the frequency of transfers from whale addresses. This is usually not a bottoming signal, but rather that some large holders are exiting during the rebound or deploying short positions. The growth rate of HODLer wallets is slowing, and the market lacks fresh large buy orders.
3 The suffocating feeling from news: There is no new liquidity injection on a macro level, and traditional risk asset sentiment is cautious. Inside crypto, besides sporadic narratives, there are no macro catalysts that can reverse the situation. Market liquidity is tight, and in this environment, the weight of technical analysis will be amplified.
My sentiment? Calm to the point of being frightening.
My previous accurate top escapes and swing shorts were not based on luck, but on strictly adhering to the iron rule of "technical structure first, on-chain verification second, news dictates the rhythm." This time, I still choose to stand on the side indicated by market momentum.
Conclusion:
A short-term rebound (if there is one) is merely a test of selling pressure, not a reversal. I maintain a bearish outlook, with the primary target below at 85100 (Bollinger lower band and previous structural level). If it effectively breaks below, the space will further open up. In terms of operation, do not "catch falling knives" in a downtrend, position management is paramount.
The market will verify everything. Stay patient, stay focused. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and accurate points in the crypto space, becoming your navigation in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth! #加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
