After today's drop, it feels somewhat unrecognizable. Of course, this kind of sell-off comes more from systemic risks; don't try to interpret it from a technical perspective, like saying 3800 points is support. Whether it breaks or not is just a guess. From my understanding, guessing like this is meaningless. This kind of predictable systemic risk is not scary, but you can't analyze rationally how much damage this sell-off will actually cause. We can only focus on how to respond from an operational perspective.

Recently, the market has been very tangled, but the index has really only dropped significantly on November 21 and today. How many times can we have such a big drop in a year? As long as you dare to bottom out during a big drop, the short-term win rate is quite high. Even if you're stuck in short positions, it's just a matter of time. If you enter the market at this moment, your cost is definitely lower than most short-term traders. Isn't making money just about having a lower cost than others? If you have a cost advantage, what’s there to be afraid of? Of course, many people are always impatient, either chasing highs or entering the market at small drops, and often hesitate to enter during big drops, which makes it very hard to make money.

I've been reminding everyone that there won't be any major market movements before the end of the year. This isn't simply deduced from patterns but is mainly based on the current market situation. I don't look too much at positive news but rather focus on the capital situation. Without going too far back, just looking at recent events, last Friday there were only a few new stock subscriptions, and this week there are five more. Isn't this just increasing bloodletting? Recently, almost every week around 200 companies announced share reductions. Big-cap stocks like Moore Threads are significantly draining the market. Tomorrow, Muxi shares will also be listed, and everyone's expectations are similarly high. This is another high-priced stock that diverts market capital. The overall environment is there; the yen is about to raise interest rates. The larger trend is unfavorable for the market, and if you want to bet on a low-probability rebound, then there's nothing we can do.

We can only expect that short-term there won't be much market activity; it's hard to operate in this environment. At this time, you should reduce your positions and learn to protect yourself. If you insist on thinking how strong your predictive ability or stock-picking ability is, then you can't blame the market for your losses. It's fine to make quick trades, but the premise must be small positions; that way, the cost of being wrong is not too high. We can't say we’re right every time; the key is that the risk is manageable. Managing your position well makes the market's ups and downs less important. When I say this, some people may not feel it, which means they definitely don't manage their positions well. I usually don’t deliberately try to bottom out or top out; I just mitigate risks through changes in my position. I often hear people complain about the market, which can ruin their mindset. The market has always been very cruel; often, most people making money is just a process, while losing money is the result. When the market is good, discussing these things makes others feel like you're blocking their path to wealth. When the market is bad, talking about these things seems like you're rubbing salt in others' wounds. From my understanding, we don't avoid the pain points; only when it hurts to the bone will you change.

Let's review today: the drop was pretty bad!

Today the market was quite weak, almost "plummeting." The ChiNext index dropped directly by 2.1%, and the main index (Shanghai Composite) dropped by 1.11%, with over 4300 stocks falling, indicating that not many were making money. Even worse, the trading volume shrank by 52 billion, and the main funds crazily flowed out over 80 billion! What does this indicate? Funds inside the market are retreating, and those outside are still observing, with confidence being very weak.

The only bright spot is that consumer stocks and autonomous driving are holding up against the trend. Why? Because policies to stimulate consumption have come again! Three departments jointly issued a document to "vigorously boost consumption," and there are reports that Moutai will control supply and raise prices. The National Development and Reform Commission also published an article emphasizing "expanding domestic demand." This has given consumer stocks a strong boost. On the autonomous driving side, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved the "birth certificate" for L3 level autonomous driving, which is a milestone, and naturally, related concept stocks are excited.

Analyzing tomorrow's potential script:

Inertia down + shrinking fluctuations: Today's drop was so severe, and with so many funds fleeing, tomorrow morning is likely to face inertia-driven downward pressure. Especially those sectors that fell sharply today (resources, technology, new energy, etc.) may open lower or continue to test the bottom. Trading volume is key; if it continues to shrink, it indicates that panic selling hasn't fully emerged or outside funds are still waiting, which may lead to a weak fluctuating pattern. The index may continue to grind at low levels, and the widespread decline of individual stocks may last for a while.

Structural opportunities still exist: The consumer and autonomous driving sectors that rose against the trend today are likely to be the focus of funds tomorrow. The policy benefits are solid, and the consumer sector itself has "defensive" attributes (relatively stable performance) at the end of the year. The benefits for autonomous driving are industry breakthroughs, with significant potential for imagination. These two directions may see individual strong stocks perform well tomorrow, possibly even driving related sub-sectors. However, be cautious; if the main index is too weak, they may also be dragged down and experience a pullback.

Pay attention to "stop-loss" signals: Tomorrow, we need to focus on:

Trading volume: Can it increase? Increased volume on the downside (panic selling emerging) may accelerate the bottoming process (but it will be painful), while increased volume on the upside (funds buying the dip) is a good signal. Continuing to shrink volume will still be frustrating.

Policy expectations and emotional recovery: Domestic policies are still striving to provide support. If there are new, more specific positive policy announcements during the session, or if market sentiment begins to recover after consecutive declines, there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the afternoon. However, expecting an immediate V-shaped reversal is quite difficult.

Tomorrow's market faces significant pressure at the start, with a high possibility of inertia-driven downward movement. The overall atmosphere remains weak, with trading volume being the core observation. Expecting a broad-based rebound is unrealistic; it's more likely that:

The index will continue to fluctuate weakly, or even dip slightly.

Individual stocks will continue to diverge, and most stocks may still show no improvement.

Sectors driven by policies/events, such as consumer and autonomous driving, may be relatively resilient or even locally active, becoming a safe haven for capital.

In terms of operations: In this kind of market, it's best to watch more and act less; controlling positions is key. Don’t rush to bottom fish those sectors still in a downward channel. If you really want to find opportunities, you can only select fundamentally sound individual stocks from directions with clear policy support and strong performance today (consumption, autonomous driving), and be quick to enter and exit, with strict stop-losses. The overall risk in the market has not been fully released, and external variables (especially from the Bank of Japan) are also significant, so remain cautious and prioritize protecting your capital.