Non-farm payrolls will be released tonight! U.S. employment data shines a light, and the crypto market welcomes a critical time window
After more than a month of waiting, the U.S. November non-farm payroll report is finally out. This is the first complete employment data released since the end of the government shutdown, and the real state of the labor market—whether it continues to be under pressure or begins to loosen—will be systematically verified tonight.
For crypto assets, this is not just ordinary data—
every deviation could directly trigger a shift in the direction of funds.
The Federal Reserve has long signaled its intentions.
Several officials have mentioned in recent speeches that the resilience of the employment side is weakening, with internal models predicting that the unemployment rate may gradually approach the 4.5% range. Powell has also clearly pointed out that the marginal contribution of employment growth is decreasing, and new job creation is difficult to maintain at previous levels.
Currently, the U.S. employment structure shows a clear "stutter":
The scale of layoffs is not large, but the willingness of companies to expand is clearly insufficient;
The employment pressure on recent graduates and young labor force continues to amplify;
Companies are becoming conservative in their medium- to long-term hiring plans.
Combined with the acceleration of population aging and tightening immigration policies, the supply side of the labor force remains constrained, making it difficult for employment data to show significant growth in the short term.
The core that truly affects the market remains the directional choice of interest rate cut expectations.
👉 If non-farm performance is weak:
Market expectations for a shift in monetary policy will be strengthened, expectations for dollar liquidity will improve, and risk assets may react first, with Bitcoin and high-volatility assets having upward space driven by sentiment.
👉 If the data is significantly stronger than expected:
The interest rate cut timetable may be repriced, the dollar may strengthen in stages, and the crypto market may face short-term adjustments and deleveraging pressures, a scenario not uncommon in history.
On one side are the employment pressure signals continuously released by the Federal Reserve,
On the other side is the market's urgent expectation for liquidity easing.
This non-farm data may become an important pivot point for the end-of-year to New Year market trends.
The direction will soon be revealed; the market will not wait for anyone. @实盘带单-K哥
