The non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and gold and silver prices are rising against the market trend. The market is waiting for guidance from the 'Super Data Night'.
The signals of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion released by the Federal Reserve have not effectively boosted market sentiment. Ahead of the release of two key data points on non-farm employment and inflation this week, investors generally remain cautious, preferring to hold cash and wait.
On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively fell, and the recently adjusting AI concept stocks continued their sluggish trend. However, Tesla rose against the trend, with a single-day increase of 14%, pushing its stock price close to historical highs. With the strong performance of Tesla's stock price and the rising valuation of SpaceX, Musk's personal wealth has surpassed $600 billion, setting a new record.
It is worth noting that the trading hours of U.S. stocks may undergo changes. NASDAQ plans to apply for a 24-hour trading mechanism, and the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Options Exchange are also considering similar measures to meet the trading demands of overseas investors. As of the second quarter of this year, overseas investors hold more than $18 trillion in U.S. stock market value, accounting for about 26% of the total market value of U.S. stocks.
The precious metals market remains strong. Boosted by the drop in the U.S. dollar index to a two-month low, gold prices have risen for five consecutive trading days, stabilizing above the $4300 mark, but faced significant resistance above $4350 during the session. Silver has performed even stronger, successfully breaking the $64 mark at Monday's close.
In the foreign exchange market, the euro has risen against the U.S. dollar for four consecutive days, with the exchange rate rising to 1.1753; the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar has retraced from highs, falling to 0.6641. As market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike heat up, the U.S. dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate has fallen below 155.
The crude oil market continues to show weakness, with WTI crude oil prices falling to $56.54, reaching a two-month low. Currently, the commodity market shows significant divergence, with silver prices now higher than a barrel of crude oil, and the gold-oil ratio reaching its highest level since the pandemic.
Today's market focus is on the U.S. November non-farm payroll report and October retail sales data to be released at 21:30 Beijing time, as their results may have a crucial impact on market trends.
The market expects that the non-farm payrolls in November will increase by 50,000, significantly slowing from 119,000 in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4%. It is noteworthy that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will today reissue the October non-farm employment data, but the complete report will not be published, and the October unemployment rate data will be permanently missing.
If the employment data falls short of expectations, it may reinforce market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year, thereby putting pressure on the U.S. dollar. Current interest rate markets indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold in January 2024, with the rate cut possibly occurring in April or June. However, if the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises to 4.5% or higher, even if rate cut expectations heat up, it may trigger market concerns about a worsening job market. In such a case, previously high-performing AI concept stocks may face selling pressure, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver are expected to maintain their strength.
Non-farm data is just the trigger; the potential interest rate hike direction from the Bank of Japan, the real flow of ETF funds, and the on-chain behavior of whales together constitute the trends that determine market direction. Market volatility is imminent. Join Huangdi to layout strategies and accurately grasp the market movements. If you want to witness everything, join the chat room!
