The trading volume of the prediction market has surged in recent months, surpassing memecoins and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs).

At the same time, major players in the market are competing to capture a position in this growing segment. This momentum raises the critical question of whether the prediction market will become the next big trend in the crypto space.

Prediction market with memecoins

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), an analyst stated that while in the previous year, NFTs and memecoins were mainstream trading, the market has significantly changed. According to the post, the prediction market can generate a trading volume of up to 7.5 billion USD in October.

In comparison, memecoins have a trading volume of 2.7 billion USD, while NFTs lag behind at around 600 million USD, with this difference widening in the following month.

The volume of the prediction market has increased to 9.5 billion USD, while memecoins and NFTs have dropped to 2.4 billion USD and 200 million USD, respectively.

Another analyst added that on the Solana chain, the trading volume of Polymarket is approaching Pump.fun, highlighting that this segment is growing rapidly.

People are beginning to realize that the prediction market is much better than memecoins, the post states.

This trend reflects a change in trader behavior, as memecoins that once thrived on community buzz and speculation are increasingly losing interest from investors. Meanwhile, the importance of traders seems to be shifting towards platforms with real usage and more emphasis on clear outcomes.

Market critic Mario Nawfal agrees with this point, arguing that capital is flowing towards outcomes, not jokes.

Focusing on the prediction market could be the next step. Polymarket alone has generated a monthly trading volume of over 2 billion USD, with the trend potentially reaching tens of billions this year, while meme platforms are more focused on launching new coins rather than maintaining long-term liquidity, Nafwal said.

Previously, John Wang, head of Crypto at Kalshi, explained that memecoins are losing momentum due to a structure that favors insiders, and the issue of fairness remains unaddressed.

Although memecoins are still a powerful tool for creating permissionless assets and have viral growth, Wang commented that the prediction market is more transparent and promotes social participation.

The prediction market is simple; anyone can research and trade based on their own opinions. However, memecoins have turned out to be a more complex game than initially thought, as there will be no price manipulation or rapid sell-offs in the prediction market, since in the end, everything must come to an end with the truth. Additionally, there is more social engagement than before, Wang said.

Why is the prediction market growing faster now?

Moreover, prediction markets have been around for many years. However, regulatory clarity and institutional participation have helped legitimize this industry, leading to rapid adoption.

According to data from Dune, the prediction market had 278,872 weekly active users last week, with total contract trading volume hitting a record high of 3.82 billion USD, while the weekly transaction count also set a new record at 12.67 million. These figures reflect ongoing engagement.

Importantly, interest is no longer limited to retail traders, as large institutions are rapidly moving into this market, and Coinbase has reported that it is planning to launch a prediction market as well.

Gemini's affiliate, Gemini Titan, LLC, has also received a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which allows Gemini to start offering prediction markets to customers in the United States. Additionally, Trump Media & Technology Group has plans to enter the prediction market business as well.

Despite this, challenges remain, as the prediction market relies on reliable oracles for outcome determination. If disputes arise regarding the outcomes, it could undermine trust. The risk of price manipulation is also a concern, particularly in low-liquidity competitions or niche events. Thus, the coming months will be indicative of whether the prediction market can continue to gain traction.