The price of Bitcoin is facing pressure again, with BTC dropping about 4% in the last 24 hours and nearly 10% over the past 30 days amid selling pressure in the crypto market. As traders continue to debate between a rebound or a decline, key long-term levels reveal themselves as potentially decisive for how Bitcoin's price will finish this year.
Both price structure and cycle analysis converge at the same zone. If Bitcoin cannot defend this level before the year's end, the risk of a downward trend will increase rapidly.
Important Bitcoin price levels to watch.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading close to the 2-year simple moving average (2Y SMA), which is near 82,800 USD. This level is not just a regular support but also one of the significant long-term points in Bitcoin's cycle.
The 2Y SMA value is calculated using daily closing prices but is interpreted with monthly closing prices for cycle analysis. Therefore, what matters is not the intraday movement but where Bitcoin closes at the end of the month.
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The last time Bitcoin's price broke this SMA line in mid-2022, it corrected down another 51% before attempting to rise again. That's why December 31 is very important.
When the December candlestick closes, the market will lock in the complete data for that month. This candlestick becomes a signal that analysts use to assess whether Bitcoin is maintaining its long-term trend or entering a deeper structural weakness.
Historically, monthly closing prices below the 2Y SMA often reflect prolonged bearish phases, but if it closes or remains above this level, it usually indicates survival in that cycle. Therefore, when the month closes, there may be no chance for another rebound.
Analysts tracking Bitcoin's long-term cycle point out that this level is a critical structural dividing line. Therefore, Bitcoin must hold above this zone until the end of the month to avoid sending clear bearish signals.
Why is this support facing pressure now?
This issue is not just technical, as blockchain data also shows increasing tension lying beneath the market surface.
Long-term holders, defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, have increased their selling activity throughout December. Data on the net position changes of long-term holders shows a net sell increase from about 116,000 BTC at the beginning of the month to nearly 269,000 BTC by December 15.
This is an increase in selling pressure of over 130% within just two weeks.
This group is not short-term traders; everyone tends to sell only when confident or to reduce risk. Thus, their continuous asset distribution adds weight to the downside and makes defending critical support levels even more challenging.
When long-term holders sell during a price decline, it reduces the margin of error around critical price zones such as the 2-year moving average.
The Bitcoin price level that indicates recovery or decline.
If Bitcoin cannot hold above the range of USD 82,800–81,100 until the end of December, the risk of a downward adjustment will increase rapidly.
And if the price clearly breaks below this zone, it will open the way to USD 73,300, which is about 15% below the current level and will be the next major bearish forecast on the chart.
Conversely, Bitcoin needs to regain a position above USD 88,200 to alleviate short-term pressure, and a stable movement above USD 94,500 would restore the upward structure and turn the trend positive back towards buyers.
As long as this does not happen, Bitcoin remains stuck between the long-term cycle support and increasing selling pressure.
