Author: Qingfengbtc
Brothers, I am Qingfeng.
Last night, even the seasoned traders would break out in a cold sweat from this sleep.
Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted straight down from above $90,000, hitting a low around $85,800, leaving a 'river of blood' overnight. Ethereum (ETH) also directly fell below the psychological barrier of $3,000.
The square is now filled with wails of 'the bears are returning swiftly.' But as a veteran who has crawled through the financial circle for 20 years, I must tell you: this is absolutely not just an internal adjustment in the crypto space; it is a 'resonant retreat' of global risk assets.
Today, Qingfeng won't talk about the abstract; let me take you through what happened last night and the upcoming critical levels.
📉 1. Who was the 'culprit' last night? The death linkage between the US stock market and the crypto market
Many people only focus on Binance's K-line but do not pay attention to the US stocks across the ocean. Last night's crash originated from Wall Street.
1. The chain reaction of the 'AI bubble' bursting in the US stock market
Last night, the US stock market closed down sharply. The reason is simple: the leader could not hold on.
Data speaks: Oracle plummeted, and AI chip giants like Broadcom and Nvidia all saw corrections.
Qingfeng Interpretation: Wall Street begins to question 'can AI really make money?'. When AI technology stocks (the barometer of risk assets) plummet, funds will indiscriminately sell all high-risk assets. Bitcoin is now the 'shadow stock' of the US tech sector; when the US market sneezes, the crypto market catches a cold.
2. The Bank of Japan's 'midnight raid'
What's worse is the negative news from the East.
Authoritative news: Market rumors suggest that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates to 0.75% at the meeting on December 19th. Last night, the yen exchange rate experienced unusual fluctuations, leading to a rush in 'yen arbitrage trading' to close positions early.
Qingfeng Interpretation: This kind of funding that 'borrows yen to buy US stocks/Bitcoin' is the smartest and also runs the fastest. A large part of last night's sell-off was institutions being forced to sell BTC to repay yen debts.
📊 2. On-chain truth: Retail panic, what are the whales doing?
Since it has fallen, we need to see who is selling and who is buying.
1. The 'great cleansing' of the futures market
The data is extremely grim. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $500 million, of which 85% were long positions.
This is the scheme of the big players—using the weekend to push up to $90,000 to entice long positions, then on Monday night, in conjunction with negative news from the US stock market, to deliver a 'closing door to hit the dog'. The current market has cleaned out all leverage.
2. The 'subtle signal' of the spot ETF
Although the price has plummeted, I want to share an counterintuitive piece of data:
BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) did not see a large-scale net outflow last night.
What does this indicate? It indicates that this wave of decline is mainly a deleveraging in the derivatives market, and the real long-term institutional funds have not exited. They are still waiting for the shoe to drop on December 19th from the Bank of Japan.
🎯 3. Market forecast: Is $85,000 the bottom?
Now everyone is asking: Will it fall further?
1. Key time point: December 19th (this Friday)
This is the day when the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision.
Script A (negative news is fully released): Announce an interest rate hike, but the wording is gentle. The market will think 'the biggest bomb has exploded', BTC will bottom out and rebound in the range of $82,000 - $85,000, starting the 'Christmas rally'.
Script B (Black Swan): The rate hike exceeds expectations. BTC may test the annual support at $78,000.
2. Qingfeng's practical strategy
Long position friends: If you haven't been liquidated yet, consider reducing your position as it approaches $88,000. The current liquidity does not support a V-shaped reversal.
For spot traders: Buy only below $85,000 and do not sell. Remember, every 20% level pullback in a bull market is God giving you an opportunity to get on board. Don't fall before dawn.
💡 Veteran's conclusion
Although this wave of decline is fierce, it has not disrupted the long-term halving cycle logic of Bitcoin.
The pullback of AI stocks in the US is temporary, and the interest rate hike in Japan is just a short pain.
The current panic is the best cover for the main players to collect bloodied chips.
Close your accounts, look less at the K-line, and wait for the storm on Friday to pass; we’ll meet at the mountain top.
I am Qingfengbtc, follow me, and let me help you see through the dealer's cards with 20 years of experience.
(Brothers, did you buy the dip last night? Report your safety in the comments!)
