Tonight's data release makes me feel like they are deliberately muddying the waters, haha

1. The chaos in the data stems from statistical flaws, with a total downward revision of 33,000 for August and September, due to low response rates in earlier surveys and biased sample statistics. For instance, after the downward revision of August data, it turned to negative growth; the October data showed a decline of 105,000 jobs due to the 43-day government shutdown preventing the collection of household data. Although the 64,000 new jobs in November exceeded expectations, the industry is concentrated in low-paying service sectors, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, indicating that employment is not truly recovering. These problems are caused by disruptions in the statistical process and model biases.

2. Ambiguous data fits the Federal Reserve's policy game demands: Currently, there is a significant hawk-dove divide within the Federal Reserve. The hawks can emphasize employment resilience with the November new job data, opposing a hasty rate cut; the doves can argue for a rate cut based on the downward revisions of August and September and the sharp decline in October jobs to prevent an economic slowdown. This data contradiction allows the Federal Reserve to avoid rushing to a conclusion, enabling flexible policy adjustments based on subsequent economic changes, thus avoiding premature statements that could lead to passivity.

3. The market finds it hard to seek a clear direction and can only cautiously observe: The single November data cannot support a conclusion of employment recovery, while the previous data revisions are insufficient to prove a collapse in the job market. With the credibility of the data discounted, the market is hesitant to make extreme bets; for example, after the release of this data, gold only saw a slight increase, and U.S. stocks did not show significant movement. This also confirms that the job market is indeed in a cooling phase, as Powell has mentioned that official data may be systematically overestimated, and perhaps after April, the actual monthly job count is a net decrease.

In the end, this set of data indeed did not provide a clear guiding direction for the economy; rather, it stabilizes market rhythm by creating ambiguous expectations. And the policy shift you mentioned is the turning point, aligning with the current logic—only when the Federal Reserve clearly initiates continuous rate cuts and other policy adjustments can it truly reflect the real turning point in employment and the economy. $ETH $BTC #BinanceABCs #美国非农数据超预期