When Donald Trump returns to the White House again, many in the crypto market expect to see a familiar scenario, hoping that supportive crypto policies, friendlier regulations, institutional funding, and risk appetite from investors will help drive a true bull market.
But as 2025 is coming to an end, the crypto market is clearly closing the year with a reduced value, at only 20% of the peak during the Biden era.
Even with Trump, the crypto market's value remains only 20% of the Biden era in the United States.
This question has thus become the heart of the growing debate: is crypto stuck in a difficult time, or has something fundamentally changed?
It is time for everyone to accept and disclose that the crypto market is dysfunctional, according to Ran Neuner, an analyst and host of Crypto Banter.
This analyst emphasizes an unprecedented disconnection between fundamentals and prices, with Neuner stating that 2025 has all the elements for a bull market, including
Excess liquidity,
The US government supporting crypto,
Spot ETF (especially those referencing Bitcoin and Ethereum)
The continuous accumulation of Bitcoin by individuals such as Michael Saylor,
The participation of states and sovereign wealth funds, and
Many macro assets, such as stocks and precious metals like gold and silver, have reached all-time highs.
Despite all these factors, Neuner stated that the market is closing 2025 at a lower level, only 20% of the Biden era.
This point highlights that traditional theories and explanations are becoming increasingly inadequate. The idea of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, stagnant liquidity, or IPO moments for crypto all sound increasingly like rationalizations after the fact rather than true answers.
Neuner sees the market thus leaving only two possible paths ahead.
There are some structural or mechanical sellers hidden that are pressuring prices, or
crypto is preparing for what he calls the biggest rebound after the market finally returns to balance.
Not everyone agrees on what is damaging
Market critic Gordon Gekko, a popular user on X, expressed a different view, asserting that this pain is designed and structured, not abnormal in any way.
Nothing is broken. This system is functioning as intended by market makers. Sentiment is at its lowest in years. Leverage traders have lost everything. It shouldn’t be easy. Only the strong will be rewarded, as he wrote.
This divisive opinion reflects a deep change in how the crypto market has evolved compared to previous cycles during the early Trump era, from 2017 to 2020, when crypto grew amid a regulatory void.
The speculative flow from retail is predominant, with uncontrolled leverage, while reflexive momentum has pushed prices far above their actual value.
In the Biden era, conversely, the market has been clearly shaped by institutions. Regulatory enforcement has limited risk while ETFs, custodians, and legal compliance frameworks have reshaped capital management and funding directions.
Conversely, the tailwind many expected in crypto is occurring in this era of increased restrictions.
ETFs offer access but are almost entirely for Bitcoin.
Institutions are beginning to allocate capital but often hedge and adjust technical balances stringently.
There is liquidity, but much of the capital is going to TradFi wrappers instead of the blockchain ecosystem.
The result is large but lacks a feedback reaction.
Bitcoin is stable while altcoins are falling in the new crypto order.
This structural change has been particularly painful for altcoins, as analysts and KOLs like Shanaka Anslem and others pointed out that the centralized crypto market no longer exists.
Conversely, 2025 has divided the market into two games as follows.
Institutional Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETFs with low volatility and a long-term outlook, and
Trend Crypto: with many tokens competing for small liquidity, most collapse within a few days.
Capital is not flowing smoothly from Bitcoin to alts as it used to during what is called alt season, but rather it is flowing according to predefined missions.
…your only option now is to play Institutional Crypto with patience and awareness of macro situations or play Attention Crypto with speed and infrastructure, Anslem said.
If based on the views of this thought leader, holding altcoins rationally for several months is undoubtedly the worst strategy right now.
You weren't early in the altseason; you are waiting for a market structure that no longer exists, he added.
Perhaps this is the foundation of trader confidence, as they know where to look. Lisa Edwards also supports this idea, pointing out that market participants need to understand liquidity flows.
Everything has changed. Cycles are spinning, money is moving in new forms. If you wait for the old altseason, you will miss the opportunities right in front of you, she stated.
Quinten François agrees with this view, pointing out that the number of tokens in 2025 has increased significantly compared to previous cycles, with over 11 million tokens in the market. The concept of a large altseason like in 2017 or 2021 may have become outdated.
During price adjustments and recoveries: the post-institutional test of crypto in Thailand.
Meanwhile, macro pressures continue to weigh on sentiment. Nic Puckrin, an investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, stated that Bitcoin's weakness near the 100-week moving average (MA) reflects concerns about a new AI bubble, uncertainty about future Fed leadership, and year-end tax-loss selling.
All of these factors lead to a subdued close for 2025, he said in an email to BeInCrypto, warning that BTC could temporarily drop below USD 80,000 if selling accelerates.
Thus, whether crypto is broken or just changing, investors should research thoroughly on their own.
But what is clear is that the expectations of the Trump era are clashing with the Biden era market structure, and the old playbook no longer applies.
Conversations between economists and investors at the mainstream table point to a severe repricing or sudden upward spike, likely to define the post-institutional identity of crypto.
