Daily market dynamics
Start a new day with the pulse of the market.
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Current meta direction
The normalization process of institutions is accelerating: JPMorgan has launched a $100 million Ethereum money market fund, and Visa has formed a stablecoin consulting team. These indicate that traditional financial institutions are no longer in the testing phase but are actively deploying. This has raised the fundamental expectations of the market.
Predicting market legalization: Polymarket processes over $2 billion in transactions monthly, forming a self-reinforcing cycle. Coinbase will launch a competing product on December 17, which not only validates the existence of this category but also expands the target market beyond native cryptocurrency users.
The TGE timeline for the first quarter of 2026 is gradually becoming clear: Companies like Solstice and Paradex have confirmed dates for the first quarter. This means that farmers now have a clear exit deadline and are concentrating their funds into these ecosystems until February.
The new token economics test loss aversion: The STREET token uses 8% of fees to purchase Quirkies NFTs at a low price and then relists them at a markup, with proceeds used to burn tokens. This strategy creates a perceived asymmetry in gains, leveraging the psychology of the earnings framework.
Opportunities and catalysts
December 17 catalyst cluster: Synthetix Perp DEX launched on Ethereum, supporting multi-collateral and RWA. On the same day, Coinbase launched prediction markets and tokenized stocks after receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Such a concentrated release schedule may distract attention but could also drive industry development.
The gap in cross-chain infrastructure is being filled: Chainlink CCIP is expanding to Solana through Pendle/Kamino integration. NEAR Intents enable cross-chain gaming (Loot Survivor) without the need for signatures. Infrastructure development benefits from multi-ecosystem growth while avoiding single-chain risks.
Exploiting vulnerabilities for arbitrage: Ribbon Finance confirmed that after exploiting a vulnerability, it has repaid $2.7 million from dormant accounts. Historical data shows that projects that can transparently handle exploitations typically see market sentiment recover within 30-60 days. The current price may already reflect the reputational loss.
Low-key reward activities: Tonso launched Solstice, Into, and Tria activities, with total rewards exceeding $1 million. The claim deadline for Mindo Tria is December 21, with 5 days remaining. This is a limited-time opportunity for mercenary funds to acquire airdrops.
Market overview
Contradiction in risk preference: The market capitalization of JOBS surged from $156,000 to $4 million, while multiple security incidents occurred (Ribbon vulnerability causing a $2.7 million loss, Freysa whale losing $9.87 million due to liquidity issues). This indicates a polarized market, where retail investors chase market momentum while neglecting tail risks.
Institutional investors entering at price peaks: JPMorgan injected $100 million into Ethereum amidst significant whale selling pressure, which contradicts the typical mentality of retail investors 'buying the dip.' Institutional investors focus on long-term investments, unaffected by short-term price fluctuations.
The proliferation of zero transaction fees undermines the principle of value signal transmission: Paradex's cancellation of trading fees reflects the broader trend of platforms competing to enhance user experience rather than pursuing profits. Traditional finance emphasizes cash flow; however, cryptocurrencies place greater importance on network effects and expectations of token appreciation.
The asymmetry of loss aversion is evident: Freysa was liquidated due to insufficient liquidity, indicating how AI agent tokens form belief-based holding behaviors that resist normal profit-taking actions. The endowment effect exhibited by holders is stronger than that of assets with similar volatility, amplifying downside risk during liquidity depletion.
