Contradictory data released! Non-farm employment exceeds expectations, but the unemployment rate rises, is the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectation more stable?
Last night, the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payroll report was finally released, but the data presented a rare scenario of 'ice and fire'.
📊 Core data overview:
· 64,000 new jobs in November, higher than the market expectation of 45,000.
· However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, higher than previous values and expectations.
· October data was significantly revised down, with a decrease of 105,000 jobs, marking the largest drop since 2020.
🔍 Behind the data: signs of cooling have emerged
Although the new employment figures are impressive, the continuous rise in the unemployment rate, the significant downward revision of previous month’s data, combined with slowing wage growth, collectively paint a picture of a 'moderately cooling labor market'. Analysts have pointed out that the unusual decline in October is mainly related to a one-time impact from government personnel changes, thus data from the past two months should be viewed comprehensively.
💡 What does this mean for the market and policy?
This contradictory report may actually strengthen the market's expectation for easing. The core logic is that the labor market has not collapsed, but there are indeed signs of weakness, which provides more reasons for the Federal Reserve's 'preventive rate cuts'. After the data was released, the market's expectation for two rate cuts in 2026 did not weaken.
Goldman Sachs and other institutions remind that due to previous government shutdowns, this report has a lot of 'noise'. The real trend may not become clear until the December data is released in January next year.
🚀 Summary and Outlook
For the cryptocurrency market, a 'neither hot nor cold' job market may be an ideal state—it is not enough to push the Federal Reserve toward a hawkish stance but provides a basis for maintaining or even increasing easing efforts. The continued presence of liquidity expectations remains an important underlying support for risk assets.
When economic data is full of contradictions, market consensus often quietly forms amid disagreements. Do you think this report will ultimately prompt the Federal Reserve to act sooner or later?
(This article is only a macro data interpretation and does not constitute any investment advice.)