#Bitcoin is under pressure, down ~4% in 24 hours and nearly 10% over the past month. The market is now focused on a critical long-term support: the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA) near $82,800. What matters most is where Bitcoin closes December, not intraday moves.
Historically, monthly closes below the 2Y SMA signal extended bearish phases. The last breakdown in mid-2022 led to a much deeper correction. If BTC fails to hold $82,800–$81,100 into the month-end close, the next downside target opens near $73,300—about 15% lower.
Pressure is rising from long-term holders, who have increased selling through December. Net outflows jumped from ~116,000 BTC to ~269,000 BTC by mid-month, adding weight to the downside and making this support harder to defend.
Key levels to watch:
Support: $82,800–$81,100 (must hold into Dec close)
Downside target: ~$73,300 if support breaks
Relief levels: $88,200 to ease pressure; $94,500 to restore bullish structure
Until BTC either defends the 2Y SMA or reclaims higher resistance, the market remains at a make-or-break point heading into year-end.
