3820.85 points accurately bottomed out! Two key signals in the A-share market ignite the market, the C wave decline has been confirmed, and bottom fishing must wait for clear signals!

On Tuesday morning, the A-share market exhibited an accurate downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a low of 3820.85 points. The three core indices opened lower and continued to be under pressure, showing a one-sided downward trend. Among them, the ChiNext Index fell sharply by 2.35% in half a day, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Indices both fell more than 1%, with over 4,400 stocks in the market entering a decline. The market released two key signals, confirming the downward trend of the C wave, and bottom fishing must strictly adhere to discipline, avoiding blind entry!

1. The two key signals in the market: Under extreme differentiation, defense sectors become the only safe haven.

Signal One: Sector differentiation pushes to extremes, with a pattern of 'weak defense, strong downward pressure' taking shape. Consumption sectors (retail, food, dairy) break through against the trend, with Yonghui Supermarket and Anji Food strongly sealing their boards, becoming the core defensive pillars of the market; the autonomous driving concept benefits from the landing of L3-level autonomous driving pilot projects, with Zhejiang Shibao and BAIC Blue Valley leading the way, more than a dozen related stocks simultaneously sealing their boards, becoming one of the few active main lines. In stark contrast, offensive sectors have completely collapsed, with previously popular tracks such as commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, AI, and photovoltaic energy storage collectively declining, with Dongfang Risheng dropping more than 10% in one day. The characteristic of funds concentrating from high-elasticity tracks to defensive areas is very significant.

Signal Two: The profit-making effect has completely returned to zero, and panic sentiment continues to spread. The data on the rise and fall limit in the morning was fixed at 32:22, with fewer than a thousand stocks rising, and the demand for capital risk aversion is unprecedentedly strong. Only a few sectors with clear defensive attributes and supported by policies or performance have attracted funds, while most other sectors show a 'muddy sand together' adjustment trend, with the overall market trading sentiment being cautious, and the pressure of panic selling becoming apparent.

2. Core logic of the decline and subsequent trend: The C wave path is clear, and there are clear standards for bottom fishing timing.

1. The core inducement of the big decline: The expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates has become a direct trigger, and this policy shift has led to a reconfiguration of global capital flow expectations, directly causing the Hong Kong stock market to gap down below the half-year line in the morning (the first breach this year), with liquidity tightening pressure and panic sentiment rapidly transmitting to the A-share market. Affected by this, the Shanghai Composite Index lost the key support level of 3850 points, and the technical breakdown further amplified the adjustment momentum, accelerating the index's downward trend.

2. C wave downward path prediction: From the perspective of wave theory, this round of C wave is a terminating adjustment wave after the decline of the A wave (from 4034 points to 3816 points) and the rebound of the B wave (from 3816 points to 3936 points), possessing typical characteristics of 'strong destructive power, emotional panic, and deep declines.' Judging from the current trend, the adjustment is likely to continue until next week, with the short-term primary target being the integer level of 3800 points, and subsequently moving closer to the half-year line around 3774 points, entering a stage of shock bottoming. The previous 3816 points is unlikely to form effective support and is likely to be broken.

3. Bottom fishing signals and operational strategies:

Both confirmation signals are indispensable: First, the technical signal requires the appearance of a 30-minute or 60-minute level MACD bottom divergence (stock price hits a new low but the indicator does not simultaneously hit a new low), accompanied by the formation of a MACD golden cross, marking the exhaustion of short-term downward momentum; second, the volume signal requires trading volume to shrink to a low level (around one-third of the recent average trading volume), forming a 'low volume meets low price' volume-price matching pattern, indicating that selling pressure is basically exhausted.

Current core operational principle: Focus on light defensive positions, strictly control the position within 30%, resolutely avoid high-priced stocks that have risen significantly in the past, and avoid falling into valuation correction risks; only pay attention to local structural opportunities in defensive sectors such as consumption and autonomous driving, without blindly chasing highs. The core discipline is 'do not bottom fish against the trend,' better to miss the rebound than to make mistakes, avoiding falling into the passive situation of 'bottom fishing halfway up the mountain.'

It must be clear that the C wave, as the final stage of the adjustment wave, will usher in new trend opportunities after the decline ends, but at this stage, the priority is 'stability,' protecting capital is the core premise for crossing the adjustment period. Please like and follow, and I will continue to track the dual signals of bottom divergence and low volume, synchronizing accurate bottom fishing timing at the first moment!