MicroStrategy's last Bitcoin purchase came under rapid scrutiny. Just one day after the company announced this significant purchase, Bitcoin sharply dropped.
On December 14, MicroStrategy announced that it had purchased 10,645 BTC for approximately 980.3 million dollars, paying an average price of 92,098 dollars per coin. At that time, Bitcoin was trading near local highs.
A purchase made at a less favorable time, at least in the short term
Unfortunate timing. Just one day after Strategy's purchase announcement, Bitcoin dropped into the 85,000 dollar range, even trading at a lower value for a brief period. At the time of publication, BTC remains below 80,000 dollars.
The decline of Bitcoin occurred within a wave of sell-offs of macroeconomic origin, fueled by fears of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, liquidations due to financial leverage, and the de-risking of market operators. MicroStrategy's purchase happened just before this cascade of sales.
With the drop in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy shares also collapsed. In the last five trading days, the stock has lost more than 25%, significantly underperforming Bitcoin itself.
Despite a slight rebound today, the stock remains well below the levels prior to the purchase announcement.
Currently, MicroStrategy holds 671.268 BTC, purchased for about 50.33 billion dollars at an average price of 74,972 dollars per coin.
In the long term, the company remains broadly profitable.
However, the short-term perception is important. With Bitcoin near 85,000 dollars, the last tranche is already showing a paper loss.
MicroStrategy's Mnav currently stands at around 1.11, which means the stock is priced only about 11% higher than the value of its Bitcoin. This premium has rapidly compressed with the decline of Bitcoin as equity investors reassessed the risk.
Investors are not questioning MicroStrategy's thesis on Bitcoin, but rather the timing and risk management.
The macro risks that triggered the decline of Bitcoin were well known. Markets had been warning for weeks about a potential rate increase by the Bank of Japan and the risks for the carry trade on the yen.
Historically, Bitcoin experiences significant corrections during periods of monetary policy tightening by the BOJ. This time was no exception.
According to critics, MicroStrategy should not have waited for clarity from a macroeconomic perspective. The company seems to have purchased aggressively near resistance levels, just as global liquidity conditions were tightening.
Was it really a mistake?
It depends on the time horizon.
From a trading perspective, the purchase appears poorly timed. Bitcoin dropped immediately, and the shares suffered even greater losses, aided by leverage, sentiment, and the rapid reduction of the NAV premium.
From a strategic perspective, MicroStrategy never intended to time the market lows. The company still structures its purchases with a long-term accumulation view rather than short-term price optimization.
CEO Michael Saylor has repeatedly emphasized that it is more important to own more Bitcoin than to time the entry perfectly.
The real risk is not the purchase itself, but what will happen next.
If Bitcoin were to stabilize and macro pressures became lighter, MicroStrategy's latest operation would simply integrate into the long-term average cost. If, on the other hand, Bitcoin were to drop further, the decision would potentially remain a central point for criticism.
MicroStrategy may not have made the worst Bitcoin purchase of 2025. But it may have made the most uncomfortable operation.
