🔥Grayscale's Heavyweight Statement: The Four-Year Cycle of Bitcoin is Dead, but the Bull Market Isn't Over Yet!
By the end of 2025, Bitcoin has dropped to $85,866, and many are starting to call for a bear market.
But Grayscale directly denies: This is not a bear market, but an evolution of the bull market.
⚡Key Point One: The Four-Year Cycle is Invalid
Halving → Surge → Crash, the old script has been broken by spot ETFs.
Passive buying from institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity has become the market's "shock absorber."
📊 The scale of the US BTC ETF has exceeded $191 billion.
Market momentum has shifted from retail FOMO to asset allocation demand.
⚡Key Point Two: Trump Administration = Biggest Positive
Republicans are back, and regulation has turned friendly:
🔸Stablecoin "GENIUS Act" passed
🔸SEC's enforcement cooling down
🔸The crypto market structure bill is expected to be completed by 2026
👉 For institutions, regulatory certainty > Everything
⚡Key Point Three: The Bull Market is Still Here, but It Won't Surge Straight Up
The depreciation of the dollar and high debt make BTC a "sovereign credit hedge."
However, ETF flow is turning neutral, and there is limited space for interest rate cuts, so volatility will still be significant.
In Summary
Bitcoin no longer rises based on "halving once every four years," but relies on continuous support from institutional funds.
Moving forward, the market only needs to verify one thing:
🚀 In the first half of 2026, will it really reach new highs?
