December 17, 2025 — Bitcoin climbed 1.8% in the past 24 hours, outperforming the broader digital asset market, which rose 1.46%. The move marks a potential inflection point shaped by three converging catalysts: resurgent institutional optimism, technically oversold conditions ripe for reversal, and a near-complete exhaustion of retail panic.
Bitwise Asset Management has issued a compelling outlook suggesting Bitcoin is poised to defy its historical four-year cycle, with a trajectory toward new all-time highs by 2026. Their thesis hinges on two structural shifts: the maturation of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF markets and evolving regulatory clarity. Critically, Bitwise argues that ETF-driven demand—already accounting for over 1.26 million BTC (6% of total supply)—is decoupling Bitcoin from traditional equity correlations, particularly the Nasdaq. This decoupling, if sustained, could dampen volatility and reframe BTC as a strategic, low-correlation reserve asset. The report also flags potential upside for Ethereum and Solana contingent on passage of the U.S. CLARITY Act—a legislative development that would clarify crypto asset classification. While focused on altcoins, this regulatory tailwind indirectly reinforces Bitcoin’s role as the foundational market anchor in a more institutionalized ecosystem. Investors should monitor ETF net flows, the SEC’s posture on pending rulemakings, and momentum behind the CLARITY Act in Congress.
On-chain and price-action metrics paint a nuanced picture. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index bottomed near 29 before rebounding to 38—firmly in oversold territory—while the MACD histogram flipped positive, indicating renewed buying momentum on shorter timeframes. The price has reclaimed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $92,810, a psychologically and technically relevant zone. Historically, bounces from this level have preceded measured moves toward the $96,564 swing high. However, the broader trend remains under pressure. Bitcoin still trades below its 200-day simple moving average near $108,474, a key benchmark for long-term market structure. Until this level is challenged, the dominant narrative leans corrective rather than bullish. A sustained daily close above $92,810 would not only validate the short-term rebound but also signal growing resilience, while failure to hold $88,000 could trigger a retest of $86,735, the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Retail sentiment has plunged into deep fear, with the Fear & Greed Index registering 22—approaching the 18 seen during November’s liquidation event. Santiment data corroborates this, showing a sharp spike in negative social volume and reduced retail trading activity. Crucially, on-chain metrics reveal that long-term holders are not participating in the sell-off. Net unrealized losses among long-term holders have stabilized, and exchange outflows remain steady—classic signs of accumulation rather than panic. Historically, such sentiment extremes precede local bottoms. When fear peaks and weak hands exit, stronger hands—often institutions or high-conviction holders—step in, setting the stage for the next leg up.
Bitcoin’s modest 24-hour rally is less about euphoria and more about relief: technical oversold conditions meeting institutional conviction at a point of retail exhaustion. Macro headwinds remain—particularly the unwinding of the yen carry trade and global liquidity tightening—but they are increasingly offset by the Fed’s dovish pivot and consistent ETF inflows. The immediate test is structural: can BTC defend $88,000 as support? A daily close above $92,810 would not only validate the short-term rebound but also signal growing resilience in the face of lingering macro uncertainty. In a market increasingly segmented between short-term speculators and long-term allocators, this phase may be less about explosive rallies and more about consolidation ahead of the next structural bull run—one that institutions now believe could break historical molds.
