Cardano is trading near its weakest levels of the year, and the warning signs on the chart are becoming harder to ignore. ADA is down roughly 24% over the past month and around 5% in the last 24 hours, hovering close to its yearly low near $0.37. What stands out is not just the magnitude of the decline, but the structure behind it, which points to sustained downside pressure rather than a one-off selloff.
Over the past two months, Cardano has completed two separate bearish continuation breakdowns — a pattern that typically reflects strong seller control. The first breakdown occurred in early November, when ADA formed a bearish flag through late October before breaking down around November 11. That move resulted in a sharp decline of nearly 38% from the flag’s high, setting the tone for a broader downtrend.
Instead of recovering meaningfully, ADA consolidated and then repeated the same structure. A second bearish flag formed through late November and early December. On December 11, price broke down again, confirming another continuation move in a short timeframe. When markets print repeated bearish patterns without reclaiming key levels, it signals structural weakness rather than temporary fear. Using measured-move logic, downside targets from this second breakdown begin clustering near the $0.25 region.
That said, there are early signs that weakness itself may limit the speed of further downside. Derivatives data shows leverage is already heavily skewed bearish, with short exposure far outweighing longs. This reduces the risk of a large liquidation cascade. At the same time, long-term holder behavior has stabilized. Coins moved by higher-conviction holders have dropped sharply since December 10, suggesting committed sellers are stepping back.
Technically, $0.36 remains the key support to watch. A clean break below it opens the path toward $0.33 and potentially $0.25. For any bullish reset, ADA would need to reclaim $0.48. Until then, rallies should be viewed as corrective, not trend-changing.
