view on $pippin
and why fading it is risky**
At the moment, spot demand is driving everything for $PIPPIN.
One dominant holder controls roughly 83–85% of the supply. With the market cap around $415M, that puts the visible float near $85M. Once you factor in burned tokens, inactive wallets, and liquidity tied up with market makers, the amount that can realistically be sold is probably closer to 5–7% of total supply.
At current levels, that translates to roughly $25–35M of actual spot supply being enough to keep price supported, which is small relative to the overall positioning.
Funding adds another layer. Longs are collecting close to 0.8% per hour, while shorts continue to feel pressure as long as bids stay firm. This setup encourages either sideways action or further upside rather than sustained downside.
So when does betting against it start to make sense? Only under specific conditions:
* A sharp liquidation spike that resets positioning, or
* That same limited float reaching close to nine figures in value, which would imply a market cap somewhere around $1.5B–$2.5B.
Until then, the risk versus reward on short positions looks poor to me. Sure, price could peak earlier, but that would be a gamble, not a disciplined trade.
Last reminder: never size this aggressively. Always plan for the possibility that price can still run another 10x above where you think it should top.
Protecting capital matters more than winning an argument.
DYOR | NFA | $SOL
