1. Macroeconomic Environment & Risk Sentiment Overview
1.1 Interest Rate Curve and Yield & Liquidity Expectations & Central Bank Expectations
• U.S. Treasury 10Y (Current Value): Approximately 4.15% (Market Reference on 12/17, Slight Fluctuation During the Day). http://Investing.com

• U.S. Treasury 2Y (Current Value): Approximately 3.49%–3.50% (Short End Maintains ~3.5%), 2Y/10Y Spread Remains Relatively Narrow. http://Investing.com

• Liquidity / Central Bank Actions: The Federal Reserve/New York Fed has initiated Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) as per Implementation Note, with a total plan of approximately $40bn for short-term bond purchases in the first month to replenish reserves and coordinate with ON-RRP/standing-repo operations—thus short-end liquidity supply has become a core variable in market pricing. New York Federal Reserve Bank +1

1.2 Inflation & Employment / Growth
•Inflation continues to decline slowly but remains above 2%; overall employment is robust, leading the Fed to lean towards gradual and operational tools (such as RMP) regarding 'when to cut rates and the pace of cuts.' The market has priced in some rate cut expectations but focuses more on the Fed's implementation details. Business Insider

1.3 Stock Market and Risk Preference / Liquidity Preference
•Broad-based/defensive assets are relatively stable; growth/technology is highly sensitive to industry and policy news (represented by Nvidia H200 related reports), with short-term volatility on the rise and signs of funds flowing back to the money market/short-term bonds. Reuters+1

1.4 Volatility / Fear Index & Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment
•VIX (Fear Index): Maintains at around 16–17 in a low range (sensitive to recent daily/weekly events). FRED+1

•Crypto Fear & Greed: In the 'Extreme Fear / Fear' range (multiple tracking sites report a low around 16–20, reflecting short-term panic sentiment in the crypto market). Alternative.me+1

Summary: RMP brings 'short-end liquidity supply' to the forefront, coupled with positive/uncertainty in the industry (such as NVDA H200)—short-term market shows 'liquidity signals + industry/event-driven' dual-axis differentiation, with risk preference exhibiting cautious/event-sensitive characteristics. Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1
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II. Core Asset Review (Stocks & Coins)
2.1 US Stock Broad-based Index ETF: VOO & QQQM
•VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF): Recent close ≈ $624–627 (recent intraday/closing reference), fluctuates with the market but overall maintains in the 620–635 range. Twelve Data+1

•QQQM (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF): Recent close ≈ $251–255 (range fluctuation), technology's weight causes its short-term volatility to be higher than the broad-based. http://Investing.com

2.2 Major Crypto Assets: BTC / ETH / SOL / HYPE / BNB
•BTC (Bitcoin): ≈ $87k–88k (12/17 recent value; Coingecko / TwelveData shows 87,000–87,800 range), fluctuates throughout the week and is driven by leverage liquidation/sentiment. CoinGecko+1

•ETH (Ethereum): ≈ $3.10k–3.14k (recent value), on-chain large holders and derivatives liquidity are the recent focus. Yahoo Finance

•SOL (Solana): ≈ $128–134 (recent value), maintaining the previous fluctuation range. CoinDesk

•HYPE (Niche / Speculative Tokens): Market shows high volatility but limited depth (low double-digit range), categorized as high-risk speculative targets; ensure to verify contracts and liquidity before trading. Yahoo Finance+1

•BNB (Binance Coin): ≈ $840–880 (fluctuating during the day), recently pulled back with overall market volatility. Wall Street Journal

2.3 Technology / AI / Crypto Related Targets
•TSLA (Tesla): Recent price ≈ $440–490 (range), affected by delivery, inventory, and energy strategy news. http://Investing.com

•NVDA (Nvidia): Recent value ≈ $175–185 (fluctuation throughout the week); reports about H200 production increase / orders to China continue to drive stock prices and industry sentiment (positive demand, alongside regulatory/approval uncertainty). Reuters

•META (Meta): Recent value ≈ $640–660, AI and advertising revenue remain core highlights. http://Investing.com

•GOOG / GOOGL (Alphabet): Recent value ≈ $310–320, advertising prosperity and AI application progress affect short-term trends. Yahoo Finance

•CRCL (Circle Internet Group): Due to obtaining Abu Dhabi ADGM / financial licenses, regional expansion and USDC internationalization themes support its short-term performance (recent pricing range significantly active). CoinDesk+1

•HOOD (Robinhood) / COIN (Coinbase): Brokerage/exchange stocks are short-term affected by listings, regional expansions (such as Coinbase resuming user registration in India) and changes in trading volume, highlighting trading opportunities. TechCrunch+1

2.4 Expected Assets (PreStocks)
•Anthropic / xAI / OpenAI PreStocks (Solana: Pren1FvF… / PreC1Kt…): Still high Beta, speculative targets with high contract/custody and liquidity risks; if participating, ensure to verify contract addresses, custody, and unlocking arrangements.

Summary: Risk assets are significantly differentiated: broad-based stable, technology influenced by policy/industry news, and crypto experiencing increased volatility under 'sentiment + leverage' influence; PreStocks/HYPE are high-risk speculation. Reuters+1
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III. Key Data Sections
3.1 VIX (Fear Index)
•VIX ≈ 16–17 (recent daily/weekly observations), responds sensitively to sudden news (crypto flash crashes, industry news). FRED+1

3.2 US Treasury 10Y & 2Y
•10Y ≈ 4.15%; 2Y ≈ 3.49% (12/17 data), short-end rates are influenced by RMP and overnight market supply expectations. Investing.com+1

3.3 Dollar Index DXY
•DXY ≈ 98.1–98.3 (recent value), dollar slightly retreats/fluctuates during the news window. Yahoo Finance+1

3.4 Liquidity (M2 & RRP / RMP)
•M2 (latest available monthly): 2025-10 ≈ $22.30T (22,298.1 bn), still a reference for background liquidity. Economic Data Platform

•RRP / RMP: The New York Fed has released the RMP execution plan and started buying short-term bonds from 12/12 (approximately $40bn in the first month), this program is reshaping the distribution of short-end reserves and affecting overnight/short-term rate structure. Federal Reserve Bank of New York

3.5 Crypto Fear & Greed
•Index: about 16 (Extreme Fear) — crypto sentiment is in an extreme fear zone, indicating that short-term market sentiment is fragile and easily amplified by leverage/liquidation. Bit Trading Platform+1

3.6 Bitcoin / Gold Ratio
•Gold (Spot) ≈ $4,300+/oz (recent value); BTC ≈ $87k → BTC/Gold ≈ ~20.2 (approximate calculation, reflecting BTC's relative volatility premium to gold has receded in the short term). Economic Data Platform+1

Summary: Data shows that the Fed's RMP and short-end operations remain the main axis of liquidity — short-end rates, the dollar, and risk assets will continue to be repriced around these tools and industry news. Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1
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IV. Top 10 Key News in the Last 24 Hours (ranked by impact, brief description)
1. New York Fed/Fed: RMP related execution is ongoing, with approximately $40bn of short-term bond purchases continuing to impact short-end reserves and overnight rate pricing. (Policy/operation core). Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2. Bitcoin fluctuated in the range of 12/16–12/17 and hovered around ~87k, with market leverage liquidation and sentiment at 'Extreme Fear.' (Exchange and sentiment indicators sync corroborate). CoinGecko+1

3. Nvidia (NVDA) considers increasing H200 production capacity to meet Chinese demand, reports continue to ferment, while the market also focuses on approval and regulatory uncertainties. (Significantly impacts the semiconductor/AI sector). Reuters

4. Gold maintains a high position (around $4.3k/oz), with safe-haven funds partially flowing back amid macro uncertainties and crypto volatility. Economic Data Platform

http://5.Circle obtains Abu Dhabi ADGM / regional financial licenses, promoting the compliance and commercialization of USDC in the Middle East. CoinDesk+1

6. Coinbase resumes user registrations in India and promotes fiat deposit plans (long-term positive), with active news for brokerage/exchange stocks. TechCrunch+1

7. The market and institutions continue to debate: Is RMP purely a technical operation or a substantial adjustment to money supply (discrepancies between academia and investment banks). Business Insider

8. Activities for niche crypto tokens/PreSales (on Solana) are frequent, with contract/liquidity risks frequently reminded by the market. (Speculative warnings). Yahoo Finance

9. Exchange data: short-term crypto liquidation scale and capital flow are significant, indicating the possibility of continued short-term volatility. (Market micro indicators). DailyForex

10. Investment banks and media continue to release research and comments on NVDA, semiconductor supply and demand, and the subsequent impact of RMP, affecting institutional positions and market expectations. Reuters+1
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V. Recommended Strategies + Overall Summary
Recommended Strategies (Short to Medium Term)
•Position and Risk Control in Balance (Main Line): In the window where RMP execution and industry news are frequent, maintain position flexibility, build positions in batches, and set clear stop losses; broad-based ETFs (VOO/QQQM) are suitable for gradual allocation on dips, but do not chase highs in the short term. Twelve Data+1

•Short-end/Hedging: Hold a small proportion of short-term bonds, money market funds, or gold ETFs (to hedge overnight/short-end rates and hedge volatility). Economic Data Platform

•Technology/AI (NVDA, etc.): Treat NVDA H200 related reports as 'news-driven' opportunities — increase positions in batches after orders/approvals are clarified and supported by fundamentals; otherwise, control withdrawal risks. Reuters

•Crypto (BTC/ETH): Only retain a small position as a volatility exposure; avoid using perpetual/high leverage during the 'Extreme Fear + high leverage' window; HYPE, PreStocks, and presales on Solana should only be small speculative positions and must verify contracts and custody. Bit Trading Platform

•Event-driven (CRCL/COIN/HOOD): Utilize short-term news trading opportunities from compliance/listing/regional expansion, but long-term allocation needs to consider profitability paths and regulatory stability. CoinDesk+1

Key Trigger Points to Closely Monitor (Next Week)
•Data on the ongoing execution of NY Fed RMP (purchase frequency, daily volume, counterparty behavior); Federal Reserve Bank of New York

•The order landing and regulatory response for NVDA H200 (determines the continued positive or risks for the semiconductor sector); Reuters

•Leverage/liquidation and capital flow in the crypto market (determines the short-term direction of BTC/ETH); DailyForex

•Circle / Coinbase's compliance and commercial landing progress in the Middle East and India (affects stablecoin internationalization and trading volume). CoinDesk+1

Overall Summary (In One Sentence)
The current market is jointly driven by the 'short-end liquidity management of RMP' and 'industry/geopolitical news (represented by NVDA H200) + crypto sentiment/liquidation'—short-term prioritizes risk control, builds positions in batches, and increases positions after event confirmations, with speculative PreStocks/low-cap coins kept to very small positions and strict verification of contracts and liquidity. Federal Reserve Bank of New York+1
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Main Data and Sources (Excerpt): New York Fed (RMP statement); Investing / FRED (10Y/2Y/VIX); CoinGecko / TwelveData / Yahoo Finance (BTC/ETH/ETF/individual stock historical prices); TradingEconomics / Investing (Gold / DXY / M2); Reuters (NVDA H200); CoinDesk / TechCrunch (Circle / Coinbase); http://Alternative.me (Crypto Fear & Greed). If you need to export this report as a PDF/PPT or add each asset to a weekly technical chart and generate a downloadable file, I can generate the corresponding files for you now. Federal Reserve Bank of New York+2Investing.com+2

#RMP #Fed #BTC #NVDA #Gold #VIX #DXY #Circle #Coinbase #PreStocks