The newly released non-farm data is quite interesting: the number of new jobs is 64,000, slightly more than expected, but the unemployment rate has soared to 4.6%, reaching a new high since September 2021. There are clearly more jobs, so why are there still more unemployed people? In short, this is an awkward situation of a "musical chairs" game gone wrong—music is still playing, there aren't enough chairs, and new and old players are all squeezed together.
1. Different statistical methods: counting jobs and counting people are two different things
- At the enterprise level, counting "chairs": only looking at how many payrolls the bosses have issued. If you work at a company during the day and do ride-hailing at night, that counts as two jobs in this statistic. In November, the cost of living was so high that 910,000 more people were forced to take multiple jobs. Although the number of jobs appears to have increased, it’s actually just old employees "stacking" positions, not really creating new opportunities.
- At the household level, counting "heads": no matter how many jobs you take, you only count as one employed person. Now graduates, new immigrants, and those laid off are all flooding into the market to grab opportunities, and these new "players" haven’t managed to grab any chairs, so the unemployment rate naturally goes up.
2. New chairs are added too slowly, and there aren’t enough to go around
To stabilize the unemployment rate, at least 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs need to be added each month. In November, only 64,000 "new chairs" were added, which doesn't even meet normal demand. Not to mention that the labor market is continuously bringing in newcomers; with not enough old chairs to sit on and the new chairs not keeping up, someone has to stand, right?
3. New chairs are all piled on one side, and most people have no share
The newly added jobs are particularly "biased": the healthcare sector added 46,000, and the construction industry increased by 28,000, both of which are relatively desirable. But other industries are all laying off: logistics decreased by 18,000, government positions were reduced by 6,000, and many industries have no new opportunities at all, making it hard to change careers.
Conclusion: It looks good on the surface, but it's actually hollow
On the surface, the number of jobs exceeded expectations, but the actual job market has already cooled down, and the public is finding life tighter. Given this situation, the Federal Reserve will likely have to maintain a loose policy; interest rate cuts won’t suddenly stop. Take this opportunity to pay attention to our community's ongoing construction of p u p p i e s and trust in the Ethereum chain. Join us for live discussions. $FORM
