🌌 1. Late-night anomaly: The whales' "abnormal operations" and the market's excessive reaction
Last night, there was a sudden large transfer on-chain: a whale transferred all 12.43 million ASTER (worth $11.67 million) to an exchange. If calculated at the cost price of $0.9705, this liquidation resulted in a loss of about $1.36 million. The news broke, and the community instantly erupted—"Big player is running away, quick withdraw!"
But my viewpoint is completely different:
Whale behavior ≠ market barometer: The same address (0xFB3B) sold 64.53 million ASTER for $1.54 in October, incurring a loss of $34.5 million, but then bought back 13.44 million at a low price. This indicates that whales may be engaging in swing trading rather than being entirely bearish;
The subtext of 'loss cutting': Giant whales may also face liquidity pressure (such as leveraged liquidation, cross-market margin calls), rather than simply being bearish on the project;
Historical comparison: In October, a giant whale sold 14.06 million ASTER, causing a 29% crash, but the price rebounded over 50%—giant whale washouts are often amplifiers of retail panic.
Key conclusions:
Short-term prices have reflected panic sentiment (current price $0.806, lower than CZ's build cost of $0.913);
Whales hold only 0.5% of the circulating supply, individual actions are unlikely to shake the fundamentals.
📉 Two, Technical aspect: ASTER's 'golden pit' and key positions
The current technical structure of ASTER shows typical oversold characteristics, three major signals need attention:
1. Support and resistance
Strong support area: $0.78-0.80 (recent low + whale cost area), if it breaks down on increased volume, look down to $0.70;
Breakthrough point: $0.88 (Bollinger Band middle track), if it stabilizes, look towards $0.95-$1.0;
Medium to long-term pressure: $1.20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).
2. Indicator signals
MACD: 4-hour chart shows a bottom divergence, DIF and DEA are converging, if a golden cross occurs with volume, it will trigger a rebound;
Bollinger Bands: Price runs close to the lower band, the oversold range is narrowing, a trend change is imminent;
Trading volume: Recent selling pressure is mainly concentrated during whale transfer periods, retail follow-up orders are limited, lacking sustained selling pressure.
Operation tips:
Short-term: Light positions in the $0.78-$0.80 range, stop loss at $0.75;
Medium to long-term: Gradually laying out positions, adding once every 10% drop, target cycle of 3-6 months.
🔍 Three, Fundamentals: The undervalued 'ecological engine'
The market only focuses on the price but ignores the substantial progress of ASTER:
1. Business moat
Perp DEX leader: Weekly trading volume exceeds $25.6 billion, accounting for 20% of the decentralized perpetual contract market;
Innovative features: Hidden orders, 1001x leverage, interest-bearing asset collateral—differentiated crushing similar protocols;
User growth: Cumulative address count exceeds 4.6 million, daily active users increased by 15% month-on-month.
2. Ecological upgrade
Layer 1 test network: Launching in early 2026, focusing on privacy transactions, expected to capture institutional-level traffic;
Token economic reform: 45% of tokens locked until 2035, buyback and burn mechanism continues to deflate.
3. Overlooked good news
Airdrop expectations: After the second phase airdrop inspection page goes live, community FOMO sentiment may explode;
Exchange support: Recently launched trading pairs such as CSXH, PUP, liquidity depth continues to optimize.
⚔️ Four, Whale psychological warfare: Why 'cutting losses' may be an opportunity?
Historical verification: The 'irrational actions' of whales are often contrarian indicators. Case evidence:
October 2024: After a giant whale sold 14.06 million ASTER, the price rebounded over 50% within a month;
November 2025: Brother Majie liquidated long positions with losses exceeding $20 million, but ETH subsequently stabilized and rebounded;
On-chain data: Long-term holders (LTH) continue to accumulate during price declines, smart money is taking over.
My judgment:
Whale loss cutting may be for tax planning or leverage adjustment, rather than fundamental deterioration;
The current price of ASTER is already below most institutional cost lines (such as the price at which CZ built his position), the risk-reward ratio has entered the golden zone.
💡 Five, Strategy suggestions: How to deal with the current situation?
1. Position management (core!)
Conservative: 10% position gradually laid out, stop loss if it breaks $0.75;
Aggressive: 20% position entered in 3 batches ($0.80/$0.75/$0.70), take partial profits when rebounding to $0.95;
Taboo: Do not use leverage to short, avoid becoming 'cannon fodder' for whale swing trading.
2. Alternative opportunities
If worried about ASTER's volatility, you can pay attention to related assets:
BTC/ETH: Under the macro interest rate cut expectations, the leading coins are more resistant to declines;
Perp DEX sector: GMX, DYDX, etc. may benefit from the spillover of ASTER’s ecological heat.
3. Long-term perspective
The Layer 1 narrative of ASTER has not yet been priced, and the launch of the test network in 2026 may be a value reassessment point. The key to holding chips:
Ignore short-term noise, focus on on-chain activity and TVL data;
Set a mobile stop-loss line (e.g., floating up 20% from the cost line) to protect profits.
💬 Ending interaction: Are you a 'bottom-fishing faction' or a 'wait-and-see faction'?
I believe: Whale loss cutting is the 'last drop' of market sentiment, ASTER has entered the value range. But be wary of global liquidity risks (such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike).
What do you think?
Support for 'bad news is over, the current price is the bottom'?
Or firmly believe that 'whales are running away, the decline has just begun'?
If you currently feel helpless and confused in trading, and want to learn more about cryptocurrency-related knowledge and cutting-edge information, follow me@Square-Creator-aa01419647e18
