🌪️ 1. Breaking News: Japan's central bank implements the strongest interest rate hike in thirty years, global markets hold their breath
Tonight, the Bank of Japan may deploy the strongest interest rate hike in thirty years, and global markets are instantly tense. Historical data is chilling: Since 2024, every interest rate hike in Japan has led to a bloodbath for Bitcoin—23% drop in March, 26% drop in July, and a staggering 31% drop in January this year!
Why is this interest rate hike so critical?
Historic Turning Point: Japan ends the era of negative interest rates, global liquidity tightens;
Chain Reaction: Cheap yen arbitrage funds withdraw, risk assets come under pressure;
Market Expectations: If the interest rate hike is realized, Bitcoin may dip again to 80,000 or even 75,000.
But my opinion is different: the landing of interest rate hikes does not equal a crash, but may instead be a signal of "bad news fully priced in."
💡 2. Interest rate hike logic breakdown: Why say "crisis = opportunity"?
To understand the impact of interest rate hikes on the crypto market, first look at the three core logical points:
1. Yen arbitrage funds withdraw
Arbitrage mechanism: Japan's long-term negative interest rates allow institutions to borrow cheap yen to invest in high-risk assets (such as Bitcoin);
Impact of interest rate hikes: Yen interest rates rise, arbitrage costs increase, funds flow back to Japan;
Historical patterns: After interest rate hikes in 2013 and 2018, Bitcoin experienced corrections of over 20%.
2. A strong dollar suppresses
Exchange rate linkage: Yen interest rate hikes = relative weakening of the dollar, but if the Federal Reserve maintains high rates, the dollar will still be strong.
Bitcoin attributes: A strong dollar suppresses risk assets, putting pressure on Bitcoin;
Technical pressure: Bitcoin faces strong resistance around 92,000, and if it cannot break through, it may retrace to 85,000.
3. Market sentiment overreacts
Panic clearing: Interest rate hike expectations have been priced in early; Bitcoin fell from 98,000 to 86,000, a decline of 12%;
Smart money is buying: On-chain data shows that whales are continuously accumulating in the 85,000-86,000 range;
Historical experience: After interest rate hikes land, the market often sees "bad news fully priced in," and a rebound is expected.
📈 3. Operational strategy: How to respond to the impact of interest rate hikes?
1. Bottom-fishing range and position management
Entry position: 85,000-86,000 (whale cost zone + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level);
Batch layout: Add positions every 5% drop, controlling total positions not to exceed 20%;
Stop-loss discipline: If it falls below 82,000, exit decisively to prevent deep corrections.
2. Target positions and take-profit strategies
First target: 90,000 (Bollinger Band upper track + Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level), reduce positions by 50%;
Second target: 95,000 (previous high resistance), reduce positions by 30%;
Third target: 100,000 (round number + psychological pressure level), clear positions and exit.
3. Risk control
Position management: Each single trade should not exceed 10% of total positions to avoid heavy losses chasing highs;
Take-profit strategy: Take profits in batches after reaching the target, retaining base positions for greater profits;
External risks: Pay attention to speeches from Federal Reserve officials, geopolitical conflicts, and other macro events.
⚠️ 4. Risk warning: Three major hidden concerns cannot be ignored
The market may be overly optimistic:
Interest rate hike exceeds expectations: If the Bank of Japan raises rates by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points, the market may panic sell;
Chain reaction: If other central banks follow suit with rate hikes, global liquidity will tighten further;
Technical pressure: Resistance is strong in the 90,000-95,000 range, and a volume break is needed to open up space.
Operational suggestions:
Conservative: 85,000-86,000 light positions for long, stop-loss below 82,000;
Aggressive: 85,000-86,000 in batches, target 90,000-95,000;
Wait-and-see type: Wait for the landing of interest rate hikes before making decisions.
🔮 5. Veteran's perspective: Short-term pressure, mid-term optimism
My conclusion is clear:
Short-term (1-3 days): The landing of interest rate hikes may trigger panic selling, targeting 85,000-86,000;
Mid-term (1-2 weeks): After bad news is fully priced in, a rebound is expected, targeting 90,000-95,000;
Long-term (1-3 months): Interest rate cut cycle + halving effect, target 120,000-150,000 in 2026.
The most dangerous thing currently is not the decline, but being misled by emotions:
The technical side shows characteristics of "oversold rebound"; if it breaks through with volume, it will open up rebound space;
Fundamentals (interest rate cut expectations, ETF inflow) are still supportive; a correction is an opportunity to enter rather than a disaster.
💬 Interaction time: Are you a "bottom-fishing type" or an "wait-and-see type"?
I believe: 85,000-86,000 has a safety margin, can take light positions for long, but must strictly stop-loss at 82,000. If it breaks through 90,000 with volume, can add positions, target 95,000-100,000.
What do you think?
Support "bad news fully priced in, the current price is the bottom"?
Or firmly believe that "the impact of interest rate hikes, the decline has just begun"?
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