With more job openings, how come more people are unemployed? Simply put, this is an awkward situation of a 'grab the chair' game.
**1. Different Counting Methods: Counting Chairs vs Counting Heads**
- Counting Chairs (Business Survey): Ask the boss how much salary has been paid. You work during the day and drive for Didi at night? That's counted as two jobs!
Result: Living costs are high, in November, the number of people forced to work more increased by 910,000. The chairs look more, but they are actually old players stacking up.
- Counting Heads (Household Survey): Ask your family 'Is there work to do?' No matter how many jobs you have, you are just one person. New graduates, immigrants, and those laid off can't grab new chairs, naturally causing the unemployment rate to rise.
**2. Chairs are Added Too Slowly**
Each month, 100,000 to 150,000 new chairs are needed to stabilize the unemployment rate, but only 64,000 were added in November. There are too many new players, and the old players don't have enough seats.
**3. New Chairs are Extremely Specialized**
Healthcare +46,000, Construction +28,000, other industries are basically cutting (Logistics -18,000, Government -6,000). Doctors and bricklayers are in demand, while other professions continue to compete fiercely.
**Conclusion: False Positive**
Surface job openings exceed expectations, but the actual job market is cooling down, making it tougher for ordinary people. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue a dovish stance, and interest rate cuts won't come to a sudden stop. There aren't enough chairs, and the music hasn’t stopped—brothers, practice a few more skills, stay steady!
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