During market panic, I discovered the greed of whales in the on-chain data.
Famous Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff is out again to sing bearish! This time he holds historical data showing gold breaking through $4,300 and silver skyrocketing to $66, confidently predicting that Bitcoin will test the $70,000 mark.
But what I want to say is: he might be wrong again this time.
1. Behind the seemingly bearish surface is the frenzy of the whales accumulating.
Yes, Bitcoin has indeed underperformed recently, falling from the high of $126,251 at the beginning of October. Amid panic, retail investors are selling off, and the Fear and Greed Index remains in the fear zone at 26.
But do you know? Amid this panic, 'shark' level Bitcoin addresses (holding 100-1,000 BTC) have net added 54,000 Bitcoins in the past week. This is the fastest accumulation rate in 13 years!
These whales are telling us with their actions: they are using market panic to gather cheap chips. Historical data shows that similar accumulation patterns often predict significant upward movements.
Two, the dollar is weakening, and the ultimate beneficiary will be Bitcoin.
Peter Schiff believes that the rise of gold and silver will siphon off funds from Bitcoin, but I see a different logic.
The US dollar is heading towards its worst performance since 1973, having fallen over 10% this year. When fiat currencies depreciate, funds flow into both value storage assets and risk assets.
Gold and Bitcoin have never been an either-or choice. Truly smart money allocates both, achieving a dual hedge against fiat currency depreciation.
Moreover, historically, after a surge in precious metals, funds often spill over into other alternative assets, including Bitcoin. When gold trading becomes 'overheated', Bitcoin's relative undervaluation becomes attractive.
Three, market sentiment is overly pessimistic, and conditions for a rebound are brewing.
Current market sentiment is overly pessimistic. Data shows that the average holding price for Bitcoin is around $56,403, currently below the cost for short-term investors but above the cost for long-term investors.
The options market is more optimistic about the probability of an increase in the coming month. Once market sentiment improves, short covering may trigger a strong rebound.
More importantly, there is strong support for Bitcoin around $87,600. As long as this level is maintained, the technical outlook remains bullish in the medium term.
Four, the macro environment is quietly changing.
Although the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is as high as 73.4%, the US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, hitting a four-year high.
This data may change the Federal Reserve's policy path. Historically, when there are clear signs of slowdown in the job market, the Federal Reserve tends to shift towards an easing policy.
Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to liquidity conditions. Once the Federal Reserve turns towards easing, Bitcoin is likely to rebound first.
Five, heartfelt words for fans
In times of market panic, I hope everyone stays clear-headed. Peter Schiff's warnings are certainly worth noting, but the actions of whales are more convincing than analysts' words.
My personal judgment is:
Short-term fluctuations may still occur, but $87,600 is a key support level.
Whale accumulation indicates that smart money still favors the medium to long-term outlook.
Once the macro environment improves, Bitcoin is likely to experience a strong rebound.
True investors should remain greedy in times of market panic and vigilant during times of market greed. The current market structure is clearing out weak hands, laying the foundation for the next upward wave.
Don't forget to follow@币圈罗盘 , let's witness together how the market validates right and wrong. Remember, in this market, independent thinking is more important than blindly following the trend!
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