Bitcoin's Massive Underperformance to Stocks in Q4 Could Set the Stage for a Strong January, Says K33’s Lunde

Bitcoin’s rough fourth quarter has left many investors frustrated, especially as U.S. equities pushed to new highs. While stocks benefited from optimism around AI, easing financial conditions, and resilient corporate earnings, Bitcoin largely lagged behind, failing to keep pace with traditional risk assets. But according to K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde, this divergence may actually be setting up a more favorable outlook for January.

Lunde points out that Bitcoin’s significant underperformance versus stocks in Q4 is historically unusual. In past cycles, periods where Bitcoin trails equities often lead to a catch-up phase once portfolio rebalancing kicks in and new risk appetite emerges at the start of the year. January, in particular, has frequently delivered stronger returns for Bitcoin following weak year-end performance.

Another factor is positioning. After months of subdued price action, leverage and speculative excess in crypto markets appear relatively muted. That creates room for upside surprises if fresh capital flows return, especially from investors rotating profits out of equities or re-entering crypto after sitting on the sidelines.

Lunde’s takeaway is clear: while Q4 looked disappointing on the surface, Bitcoin’s lag may be less a sign of weakness and more a reset that improves its odds for a January rebound. For patient investors, the recent underperformance could turn out to be a quiet opportunity rather than a warning sign.