Dear friends, I just came across this hardcore news — the probability of betting on "the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December" on Polymarket has surged to 98%, almost equivalent to a sure thing. The decision will be made this Friday (December 19), time is tight, and the signal is strong.
Based on the on-chain data I have been monitoring these past two days, there are several movements worth noting:
Some large amounts of stablecoins are being transferred out of exchanges, suspected of early hedging; the on-chain activity of Bitcoin has shown significant stagnation at key price levels, indicating that large funds are in wait-and-see mode; if Japan really raises interest rates, the probability of arbitrage funds flowing back home is extremely high, and short-term liquidity may tighten.
My personal judgment is: if the interest rate hike happens, the crypto market will likely experience a wave of emotional downturns, especially in altcoins that are sensitive to interest rates. But I still maintain my previous view that if it drops, it will be an opportunity, not a disaster. Macroeconomic negatives in a bull market often play out as a script of "first a drop, then a rise"; the key is whether you dare to buy in times of panic.
Old fans know that I haven't lost my way in several major directional judgments over the past few months, and this time I am also very steady. The more obvious the event is, the more likely it is to lead to a counter-trend market when expectations are fulfilled. Stay calm, keep your bullets ready; if it really pulls back, don’t be cowardly.
Remember: the news is the catalyst, on-chain data is the real framework. Only by combining the two can you see clearly and hold on.
In terms of specific operations, it is advisable to lower the leverage, set reminders for key support levels, and wait for the market to find its own direction before taking action.
Don't panic, wait for my signal. Follow Ake for more first-hand information and precise points on cryptocurrency knowledge, becoming your navigation in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth! #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $ETH
