📉 Crash warning

41.55% Volume crash breaks through 0.20 USDT, market cap 30 million, FDV 201 million, circulating supply 80%, high liquidity + low market cap = 'dump hell'.

📊 Long and short overview

- Market depth: Buy 1/Sell 1 100,000 USDT, market price 200,000 USD can pull down 5%, high slippage = suitable for limit orders.

- Funding rate: current 0↘-0.02%/8h, short dominated, long cost is high.

- Position growth rate: 24h contract position -50%, spot trading -30%, contract premium -1.5%, short crushing.

- Unlock calendar: next unlock 2026-Q1, no selling pressure in the last 3 months, time window is safe.

🚦 Key level

- Bullish defense line: 0.18 USDT (historical low)

- Bearish rebound: 0.22 USDT (previous high)

- Intraday pivot: 0.20 USDT, breaking below looks at 0.16 (Fibonacci 0.618).

📉 Sniping script

① Rebound short: 0.20–0.21 rebound meets resistance, 15 min top divergence appears, enter short, stop loss at 0.22, target 0.18 (R:R 1:2).

② Breakout short: 0.18 volume breaks down, 1 hour closes with a solid bearish candlestick, increase short position, stop loss at 0.185, target 0.15 (R:R 1:3).

③ Extreme acceleration: If the 1-hour candlestick breaks below 0.15 and the position is down -20%, short immediately, stop loss at 0.155, target 0.12 (bearish acceleration phase).

⚠️ Risk control

- Circulation reaches 80%, chips are dispersed, 300,000 USD can insert a needle by 10%, must place an order.

- The narrative is 'decentralized storage', an old concept with no new benefits, purely driven by emotions, and a vacuum period for good news could lead to a collapse at any time.

- Maximum perpetual position 200 contracts, slippage protection threshold 15%, extreme market conditions may not allow timely stop loss, place conditional orders in advance.

📌 One-sentence conclusion

0.18 not breaking can try to catch the rebound, breaking below turns bearish; 0.22 meets resistance or fee turns positive, ready to short aggressively. Small position + pending orders + conditional orders, make a quick profit on 'high circulation + old narrative'!