Crypto friends, I am Zhao Gongming. I just saw an almost certain "bomb": Polymarket predicts a 98% probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on Friday. The knife of tightening global liquidity is already hanging over all risk assets—including the one in your hand$ETH . The market may be about to change dramatically. Follow Zhao Gongming to understand the implications behind the interest rate hike!
Message depth locking:
Japan's interest rate hike is no longer a question of "if" but "how fast." Once it happens tonight, it means the last source of cheap capital globally will begin to tighten. This is definitely not good news for high Beta assets like ETH. Historically, when global liquidity begins to turn, cryptocurrencies often drop first as a form of respect. After Friday, market preferences may shift entirely from "speculation" to "hedging."
The harsh truth of the technical aspect:
Look at the ETH one-hour chart, stop lying to yourself:
The trend is down: 5-hour, daily, and weekly charts are all 'strong sell'. The so-called 'neutral' summary is just a smokescreen for short-term fluctuations.
The key level of 3000 is the life and death line for bulls and bears. The resistance at 3150 is heavy, and 3260 is even more unreachable. The support at 2890 is flimsy; once it breaks, 2760 will be hard to stop.
The MACD trap reappears: a golden cross below the 0 axis, but the energy bar is shrinking—this is a typical 'continuation rebound in a downtrend', a bull trap signal! The white line is always below the 0 axis, indicating that bulls have not gained dominance at all.
Capital flow reveals the main force's intentions: Look closely at the data, although there are sporadic inflows of ETH in the short term, all funds over a one-hour cycle are net outflows, with 7.87 million out in 4 hours, and over 500 million out in one day. This is clearly the main force offloading during a rebound, with retail investors taking over.
Zhao Gongming's view:
Based on the triple resonance of 'negative news + technical break + capital flight', I judge that the probability of ETH breaking below 2890 in the future is over 70%. The so-called 'golden cross' is a technical trap for bulls, especially under the potential impact of the Bank of Japan's decision on Friday; any rebound is an opportunity to escape. 3000 points are not a starting point, but an endpoint. Want to rush to 3150, 3260? It requires a sudden reversal of global liquidity, which is nearly impossible under the backdrop of interest rate hikes.
Operational advice for retail investors:
Position suggestion: If the rebound cannot stabilize at 3020, you must decisively reduce your position! Set 2890 as the stop-loss baseline; exit immediately if it breaks, do not fantasize.
Watching suggestion: Keep your hands off! Don’t be fooled by the 'golden cross'. The truly safe bottom-buying position is in the 2760-2800 area, and you must wait for a stable bullish candle on the daily chart.
Remember a principle: In a 'strong sell' trend, all rises are for better declines. Don’t become the 'stepping stone' for the main force's withdrawal.
The market has reached a critical moment, every step could lead to deep traps or pitfalls. I am Zhao Gongming, my analysis is unequivocal, only providing you with the most straightforward risk warnings and coping strategies. If you don’t want to exit during this global liquidity shift, follow Zhao Gongming, I will interpret in real-time the impact of the Bank of Japan's decision on the cryptocurrency circle in the chat room.
Tonight, either deep squat jumps or accelerated declines. Are you ready? Follow Zhao Gongming, let's make the most rational decision together.#ETH走势分析 #美国非农数据超预期
