#散户投资者对加密货币情绪转向看跌 $BTC As of December 17, 2025 (UTC+8), retail sentiment in the crypto market has clearly turned to deep bearish, with the following core data and impacts:
1. Core sentiment indicators (retail side)
- Fear and Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear, data from December 16), hitting a near three-week low, retail risk-averse sentiment has surged.
- Social sentiment (Santiment): Mentions of bearish keywords such as "down/breaking" significantly exceed those of "up/breakthrough", with retail generally expecting further price declines.
- Capital and behavior: Small retail orders (less than $10,000) on platforms like Coinbase continue to shrink, with noticeable selling pressure during rebounds; leveraged long positions are concentrated at stop losses, with over 190,000 liquidations in 24 hours, and retail actively reducing leverage or liquidating to wait and see.
- Trading volume: Shrunk by about 40% from the October peak, thin liquidity exacerbates the "bottoming" and volatility risks.
2. Core triggering factors
1. Macroeconomic expectation reversal: Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are cooling, and the marginal tightening of dollar liquidity is putting pressure on high-volatility asset valuations.
2. Price breakdown impact: BTC has fallen over 30% from its high of $126,000, breaking below the critical support of $86,000, with technical weakness reinforcing panic.
3. Institutional capital outflow: Net outflows from BTC ETFs like BlackRock, large whales are on the sidelines, and retail lacks confidence in holding positions.
4. Regulatory and market linkage: Adjustments in US tech stocks lead to crypto downturns but weak rebounds, breaking positive correlation and further dampening sentiment.
3. Market impacts and responses
- Impact: Continuous selling by retail suppresses rebounds, increasing the probability of a downward trend; altcoins experience larger declines, with capital concentrating towards mainstream coins like BTC; in extreme sentiment cases, it may approach a "contrarian indicator", and a short-term oversold rebound window may appear.
- Retail response: Strictly control leverage (recommend 0-1x), reduce positions to below 30%; use key support levels (such as BTC $80,000-$82,000) as reference for phased accumulation or stop-loss; avoid chasing highs and selling lows, waiting for sentiment recovery and volume signals.
