Author: Dougie, cryptocurrency KOL; Translated by: Golden Finance
Cryptocurrency is dead.
I am not referring to prices going to zero, nor am I saying that blockchain has stopped producing blocks or that stablecoins have quietly disappeared. What I want to say is that for someone like me who has spent most of the past decade deeply engaged in this industry, there is one thing that feels very uncomfortable.
My career, network, and even a large part of my personal identity are built around 'cryptocurrency'. I have experienced the ICO boom, the summer of DeFi, the NFT frenzy, the points metaverse, the wave of Meme coins... I have almost witnessed it all. In Telegram groups, cryptocurrency social platforms, industry conferences, and countless founder talks, the consensus has always been the same: cryptocurrency is at the center of the universe, and our mission is to keep expanding this universe.
But now my thoughts are almost the opposite.
The self-contained 'cryptocurrency' world is fading away.
This technology is about to integrate into everything, and those who mistakenly believe the past bubble is the ultimate form will eventually be abandoned by the times.
So why am I still bullish?
Because this 'disappearance' is the necessary path to a future grander than the industry we have always defended.
The bubble we have built
In the modern development history of cryptocurrency, the noisiest fields have always been built by 'crypto natives' for 'crypto natives.'
Not for all traders, nor for those who crave higher quality and more diverse financial services, but for a much narrower group: those whose financial lives have long been on-chain.
We have optimized everything around this type of user:
- Interface design assumes you can skillfully transfer assets worth hundreds of thousands of dollars through browser extensions
- The so-called 'education' is essentially 'discussing more posts'
- Function settings revolve entirely around 'liquidity mining,' 'point rewards,' 'token issuance,' and 'meta-games,' only those within the circle understand the intricacies.
Most importantly, we have built a market promotion strategy that works almost exclusively within the circle:
1. Issue tokens with a points mechanism
2. Initiate liquidity mining
3. Launch an invitation code system
4. Build a Discord community, hire an intern to operate the account, and call it a 'community.'
This is the meta-logic of 'crypto for the sake of crypto': the closed-loop incentive mechanism always targets the same batch of addresses that have long been well-versed in mining, rotation, and selling. When the founders talk about 'user acquisition,' what they really mean is often 'competing for the same batch of wallet addresses that other projects are also vying for.'
Behind this hides an implicit assumption that has supported countless people's careers: given time, the whole world will become like us.
But this has never come true. User numbers may have increased, but crypto culture remains niche and self-referential. Most activities still revolve around the same behaviors: trading on-chain assets, leveraging, chasing short-term incentives, etc.
What we call the 'cryptocurrency industry' is more like a highly liquid massive multiplayer online game (MMO) than a universal technology ecosystem.
This world is interesting, to be honest, even exciting. But its growth potential is fundamentally limited.
The true meaning of 'crypto is dead'
So when I say 'cryptocurrency is dead,' I do not mean the blockchain is shutting down, everyone is leaving, nor do I mean tokens are disappearing or technologies are failing.
What I really want to express is:
- The independent industry of cryptocurrency is disintegrating. The clear boundaries between 'cryptocurrency,' 'fintech,' 'AI infrastructure,' 'payments,' 'trading markets,' and 'gambling' are gradually blurring. 'Crypto startups' are no longer a distinct category, just startups that happen to use blockchain technology.
- Most applications that only serve crypto natives will either disappear or remain at a niche scale forever. If your target market is just 'those who spend all day on-chain,' it is akin to starting a business in a dead end. This niche market may exist forever, and some people may profit from it, but the potential for this technology to change the world is certainly not here.
- The label 'cryptocurrency' has become a burden. Calling something 'cryptocurrency' or 'Web3 product' no longer helps attract users, gain regulatory approval, or raise funds. Ordinary entrepreneurs will directly adopt its underlying technology but are unwilling to be tainted by its specific identity attributes.
The victory of cryptocurrency lies not in turning the entire world into crypto natives, but in allowing even those who are not crypto natives to enjoy the conveniences it brings.
What I call 'disappearance' is the end of that self-indulgent, solitary crypto world—the world that expects everyone to actively walk into it, learn its language, and follow its rules.
From 'crypto-native' to 'real-world native'
The process of technological popularization is often mundane. In the early days, only 'weirdos' and true believers would accept it. If this technology is indeed valuable, it will eventually be integrated into everything. People no longer talk about 'the technology itself,' but focus on 'what can be done with the technology.'
This is exactly the future we are heading towards: the key to success is not 'more crypto natives' but 'more ordinary people.'
We have already seen some sprouts:
- Users querying election odds on Polymarket are completely unaware that they are calling the blockchain;
- Merchants in Lagos or Buenos Aires settle invoices in USDT simply because it can arrive in seconds;
- Savers in high-inflation countries hold USDC, not because they 'are bullish on cryptocurrency,' but because their national currency has already collapsed.
These users do not need to understand what 'rollup' (Layer 2 scaling solution) is, they have already integrated crypto technology into their lives. This technology makes their lives cheaper, more efficient, and better.
Of course, this is not simply a confrontation between 'insiders' and 'ordinary people.' There is also a vast middle group that we almost overlook: they understand technology, care about privacy and control, or like to participate directly in the market but have no interest in 'yield farming' or 'points arbitrage.' They want features like self-custody but are unwilling to accept the crypto-native culture. What they need is better underlying technology, not a whole new 'persona.'
Fairly speaking, we are now closer than ever to serving this group. The user onboarding process and experience have greatly improved, with features like mobile-first, social account login, Apple Pay integration, and abstract wallets emerging. Now, you can use on-chain services without having a 'Master's degree in cryptocurrency.'
This is also why the current bottleneck is no longer user experience (UX), but 'intent.'
Since we can now make it easy for anyone to use these tools, what do we choose to build? Who do we choose to serve?
Unfortunately, the answer is often still:
- 'We are solving crypto-native problems for crypto natives.'
- 'We are making it easier for those who are already on-chain to be on-chain.'
- 'We are building a better 'casino' for a group of users who spend all day at the 'gambling table.'
And this part will eventually be eliminated by the times.
We should expect cryptocurrency to follow the development path of other foundational technologies. No one says 'I am an internet user,' and no one boasts 'I am using cloud computing.' You are just using products, getting things done.
In the future, the term 'crypto user' will also become equally strange.
What can survive
This does not mean we should completely abandon crypto culture. Some aspects are worth existing and promoting:
- Permissionless access: anyone can connect and develop
- Global liquidity and 7×24-hour market: a trading ecosystem that never closes
- Composability: open states and open application programming interfaces (APIs)
- User ownership (selectively): in scenarios that can truly enhance product value
Moreover, there is a type of 'benign oddity' worth preserving:
- An open and transparent product development process
- The instinct of open source
- Willing to try financial experiments that ordinary boards would absolutely not approve
At the same time, we should also be honest: 'casinos' have provided a lot of funding for industry building. The speculative funds and peak transaction fees that have been ridiculed by many have precisely funded the 'ordinary' infrastructure like payments. Our goal is not to eliminate 'casinos,' but to stop mistaking 'casinos' for the entire 'city.'
Crypto culture has given us truly valuable wealth. Our mission is not to bury this wealth but to integrate it into everything.
Why the old gameplay no longer works
If you agree with the above points, you must view the current industry play from a completely new perspective.
Liquidity mining, point rewards, and airdrops mostly just let the same funds circulate between slightly different user interfaces. The entire cycle is: project launch → mining → ramping up mining → exit → complaining about 'profit-seeking users.' The initial data looks bright, but the retention rate three months later is often dismal.
From an investor's perspective, you will gradually see the essence of this hype: some teams excel at creating heat and designing incentive mechanisms, but when you ask them these questions, they are almost speechless.
- Besides users of crypto social platforms, who is this product designed for?
- When rewards stop, why would users continue to use it?
- What significance does this product have for those who do not understand basis points and token symbols?
The problem is not that we cannot reach ordinary people—the tools are mature enough. The real problem is that we have almost never bothered to create anything meaningful for ordinary people.
This mindset has also encountered bottlenecks in growth. Once you try to step out of the bubble, you often run into the compliance 'south wall.'
Knowing your customer (KYC) and regulatory requirements are not top-down mandates, but rather something the founders realize 'cannot achieve growth without' and gradually introduce from the edges of the industry.
- As long as you connect to a real payment network, KYC will inevitably be involved;
- If you want to collaborate with institutional trading counterparts, you must establish a regulatory framework;
- Once it involves credit, identity verification, or real-world assets, the 'everyone anonymous' model will quickly fail.
Certain parts of the on-chain economy will remain completely anonymous and unregulated, which is its hallmark. However, it is naive to think that most economic activities will stay at this level.
That mentality of 'you will all eventually become like us' has led us to evade the hard work in problem-solving, channel expansion, and business models. Now, when hype cannot translate into lasting user retention or returns, this sense of fatigue has become evident. This is not just a macro-environmental issue, but a growth ceiling of 'building products only for insiders.'
Crypto becomes the underlying architecture of the world
If the old gameplay gradually becomes ineffective, what will the future look like?
I divide it into three levels:
1. Infrastructure layer: low-key, plain, and large-scale
Blockchain will become the default underlying architecture in specific fields: shared state systems for settlement systems of specific types of payments and markets, cross-border capital flows with stablecoins having advantages, identity verification, collateral, and ownership record fields.
Most users will never know or care that this is 'on-chain' technology. They will only feel faster settlement speeds, more reliable access, default global coverage, and programmable currency services that banks have never provided.
2. Product layer: not 'crypto products,' just 'products'
The applications in fields such as fintech and e-commerce will adopt on-chain technology when truly needed, while striving to hide complexity and compete with all other products on the same dimensions: price, speed, user experience, and trust.
They will not market themselves as 'on-chain products,' but rather focus on being cheaper, faster, more global, more composable, and sometimes emphasize fairness.
3. Speculative layer: Continues to exist, but returns to its place
'Casinos' will not disappear; they just won't be the entire story anymore. Meme coins, exotic derivatives, and purely speculative platforms will still exist, some will remain niche, and some will integrate into mainstream trading and entertainment. There is no need for them to vanish.
The key change is that speculation will become a vertical field within a larger ecosystem, rather than the cornerstone of the entire 'industry.'
The ultimate outcome is that cryptocurrency integrates into the tech stack rather than existing independently.
Who are the winners and who are the losers
If cryptocurrency becomes an underlying layer of everything, the incentive mechanism will also change accordingly.
For entrepreneurs
- Losers: teams that only serve crypto social platform users and a few on-chain addresses; founders skilled in designing liquidity mining, point programs, and token issuance mechanisms.
- Winners: teams that start from real user needs and treat crypto technology as a detail; founders willing to maintain 'plainness' in key areas (trust, compliance, channels).
For investors
- Losers: funds that adhere to the 'serve crypto people' concept and view 'reflexivity' (speculation-induced price increases) as a business model.
- Winners: investors who are optimistic about real demand, user retention, and enduring channels in the broad market (payments, credit, identity verification, trading markets, data).
For existing industry participants
- Losers: those who label themselves as 'I entered the industry early, the world must adapt to me'; refusing integration and insisting that 'pure crypto' is the only correct path ecosystem.
- Winners: teams that create underlying technologies and products that real users love and depend on, integrate into existing financial and consumption processes, and bring new on-chain demand through cooperation. Integrating into the real economy is the key to achieving lasting and great success.
The pain of letting go
If you have been deeply involved in this industry for a long time, the above points may be hard to accept.
When you have defended your position in the 'fortress' for many years, only to hear 'the fortress is about to close, the battlefield has shifted,' it is inevitable to feel pain. It feels like a betrayal of the time, energy, and faith you invested when the industry was not widely recognized.
Many people's identities are built on 'entering the industry early,' 'being different,' and 'playing games that the whole world does not understand.' When realizing that the world might adopt these tools but is unwilling to accept their identity attributes, it feels like losing something.
But this is exactly the normal development trajectory of successful technology.
When the internet becomes mundane and ubiquitous, the subculture of the internet 'dies'; when every serious company quietly adopts cloud computing, 'cloud' is no longer an exciting frontier. Nowadays, no one mourns these 'disappearances' because they are the price of victory.
The maturity of cryptocurrency means that the cryptocurrency we are familiar with must disappear. This is not failure, but an inevitable price for our past pursuits.
Cryptocurrency is dead, cryptocurrency lives forever
If we can grasp this transformation well, we will no longer view 'the popularization of cryptocurrency' as an independent goal.
Instead, we will talk about:
- Products and companies that rely on these underlying technologies
- A new market that is more globalized, open, and programmable than the original market
- Those who have changed their lives by obtaining tools that local banking systems would never provide
You can be obsessed with the closed, self-referential industry we have built, hoping the world will eventually come in. Or, you can accept that that era is about to end, and start building products and investing for others.
Our mission has never been to make everyone a crypto native, but to use the tools we create to make the world a better place—even if the world ultimately forgets the names of these tools.
If you are an entrepreneur or investor, it might be helpful to honestly ask yourself:
Am I solving problems for crypto natives or for the whole world?
Your answer will determine which side of this 'obituary' you will ultimately stand on.
